Sirius XM Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

SIRI -  USA Stock  

USD 6.47  0.02  0.31%

Sirius Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Sirius XM historical stock prices and determine the direction of Sirius XM Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Sirius XM historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Sirius XM naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Sirius XM Holdings systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Sirius XM fundamentals over time.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sirius XM to cross-verify your projections.

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Sirius XM Accrued Expenses Turnover is most likely to drop in the upcoming years. The last year's value of Accrued Expenses Turnover was reported at 48.01. The current Cash and Equivalents Turnover is estimated to increase to 97.75, while PPandE Turnover is projected to decrease to 3.92. . The current Weighted Average Shares Diluted is estimated to increase to about 5.5 B, while Weighted Average Shares is projected to decrease to roughly 4.3 B.

Open Interest Agains t 2021-08-06 Sirius Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Sirius XM's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Sirius XM's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Sirius XM stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Sirius XM's open interest, investors have to compare it to Sirius XM's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Sirius XM is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Sirius. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Sirius XM cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Sirius XM's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Sirius XM's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Sirius XM - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Sirius XM prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Sirius XM price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Sirius XM Holdings.

Sirius XM Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of August

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sirius XM Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 6.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.016103, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.51. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sirius Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sirius XM's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Sirius XM Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Sirius XMSirius XM Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Sirius XM Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Sirius XM's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sirius XM's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.61 and 8.34, respectively. We have considered Sirius XM's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
6.47
1st of August 2021
6.48
Expected Value
8.34
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sirius XM stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sirius XM stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0218
MADMean absolute deviation0.0934
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0146
SAESum of the absolute errors5.5107
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Sirius XM observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Sirius XM Holdings observations.

Predictive Modules for Sirius XM

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sirius XM Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Sirius XM's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Sirius XM in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
4.596.468.33
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
4.816.688.55
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
6.346.506.66
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
6.757.9410.25
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Sirius XM. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Sirius XM's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Sirius XM's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Sirius XM Holdings.

Other Forecasting Options for Sirius XM

For every potential investor in Sirius, whether a beginner or expert, Sirius XM's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sirius Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sirius. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sirius XM's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sirius XM stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sirius XM could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sirius XM by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Sirius XM Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Sirius XM's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Sirius XM's current price.

Sirius XM Risk Indicators

The analysis of Sirius XM's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sirius XM's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Sirius XM stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Sirius XM without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sirius XM to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Sirius XM Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Sirius XM's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Search module to search for activelly traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.

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When running Sirius XM Holdings price analysis, check to measure Sirius XM's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Sirius XM is operating at the current time. Most of Sirius XM's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Sirius XM's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Sirius XM's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Sirius XM to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Sirius XM Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Sirius that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Sirius XM's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Sirius XM's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Sirius XM's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Sirius XM Holdings underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Sirius XM's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Sirius XM value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Sirius XM's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.