SohuCom Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

SOHU
 Stock
  

USD 14.80  0.25  1.66%   

SohuCom Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast SohuCom historical stock prices and determine the direction of SohuCom's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of SohuCom historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of SohuCom to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 SohuCom Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast SohuCom's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest SohuCom's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies SohuCom stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current SohuCom's open interest, investors have to compare it to SohuCom's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of SohuCom is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in SohuCom. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in SohuCom cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the SohuCom's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets SohuCom's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
SohuCom simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for SohuCom are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as SohuCom prices get older.

SohuCom Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of SohuCom on the next trading day is expected to be 15.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.21.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SohuCom Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SohuCom's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

SohuCom Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest SohuComSohuCom Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

SohuCom Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting SohuCom's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SohuCom's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.92 and 18.09, respectively. We have considered SohuCom's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 14.80
15.01
Expected Value
18.09
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SohuCom stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SohuCom stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.7653
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0644
MADMean absolute deviation0.3701
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.024
SAESum of the absolute errors22.2072
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting SohuCom forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent SohuCom observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for SohuCom

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SohuCom. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of SohuCom's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of SohuCom in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
11.7214.8017.88
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
13.3218.3221.40
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
19.0021.3523.70
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
22.7222.7222.72
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as SohuCom. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against SohuCom's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, SohuCom's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in SohuCom.

Other Forecasting Options for SohuCom

For every potential investor in SohuCom, whether a beginner or expert, SohuCom's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SohuCom Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SohuCom. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SohuCom's price trends.

SohuCom Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SohuCom stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SohuCom could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SohuCom by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Activision BlizzardElectronic ArtsAMC EntertainmentAMC NetworksAmerica Movil SABAnterixATN InternationalAltice USAAcuityAds HoldingsAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelOne
 Risk & Return  Correlation

SohuCom Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of SohuCom's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of SohuCom's current price.

SohuCom Risk Indicators

The analysis of SohuCom's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SohuCom's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting SohuCom stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in SohuCom without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

Did you try this?

Run Aroon Oscillator Now

   

Aroon Oscillator

Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios
All  Next Launch Module

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of SohuCom to cross-verify your projections. Note that the SohuCom information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other SohuCom's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.

Complementary Tools for SohuCom Stock analysis

When running SohuCom price analysis, check to measure SohuCom's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy SohuCom is operating at the current time. Most of SohuCom's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of SohuCom's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move SohuCom's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of SohuCom to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Volatility Analysis
Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data
Go
Portfolio Center
All portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios
Go
Equity Forecasting
Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum
Go
Probability Of Bankruptcy
Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years
Go
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
Go
Global Correlations
Find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets
Go
Idea Breakdown
Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes
Go
Portfolio Anywhere
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
Go
Is SohuCom's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of SohuCom. If investors know SohuCom will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about SohuCom listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.76) 
Market Capitalization
538.7 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.14) 
Return On Assets
5.0E-4
Return On Equity
(0.0056) 
The market value of SohuCom is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of SohuCom that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of SohuCom's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is SohuCom's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because SohuCom's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect SohuCom's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between SohuCom's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine SohuCom value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, SohuCom's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.