Virgin Galactic Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

SPCE Stock  USD 1.46  0.07  5.04%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Virgin Galactic Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 1.42 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.09  and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.97. Virgin Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Virgin Galactic stock prices and determine the direction of Virgin Galactic Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Virgin Galactic's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Virgin Galactic's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Virgin Galactic's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Virgin Galactic fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Virgin Galactic to cross-verify your projections.
  
At present, Virgin Galactic's Payables Turnover is projected to drop based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 0.01, whereas Fixed Asset Turnover is forecasted to decline to 0.04. . As of March 28, 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to decline to about 232 M. The current year's Net Loss is expected to grow to about (427.6 M).

Open Interest Against 2024-03-28 Virgin Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Virgin Galactic's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Virgin Galactic's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Virgin Galactic stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Virgin Galactic's open interest, investors have to compare it to Virgin Galactic's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Virgin Galactic is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Virgin. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Virgin Galactic cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Virgin Galactic's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Virgin Galactic's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Virgin Galactic Holdings is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Virgin Galactic 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Virgin Galactic Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 1.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.97.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Virgin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Virgin Galactic's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Virgin Galactic Stock Forecast Pattern

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Virgin Galactic Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Virgin Galactic's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Virgin Galactic's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 5.75, respectively. We have considered Virgin Galactic's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.46
1.42
Expected Value
5.75
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Virgin Galactic stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Virgin Galactic stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria108.055
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0394
MADMean absolute deviation0.0857
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0488
SAESum of the absolute errors4.9725
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Virgin Galactic. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Virgin Galactic Holdings and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Virgin Galactic

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Virgin Galactic Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Virgin Galactic's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.071.455.78
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.112.126.45
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
3.844.224.68
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Virgin Galactic. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Virgin Galactic's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Virgin Galactic's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Virgin Galactic Holdings.

Other Forecasting Options for Virgin Galactic

For every potential investor in Virgin, whether a beginner or expert, Virgin Galactic's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Virgin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Virgin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Virgin Galactic's price trends.

Virgin Galactic Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Virgin Galactic stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Virgin Galactic could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Virgin Galactic by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Virgin Galactic Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Virgin Galactic's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Virgin Galactic's current price.

Virgin Galactic Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Virgin Galactic stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Virgin Galactic shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Virgin Galactic stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Virgin Galactic Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Virgin Galactic Risk Indicators

The analysis of Virgin Galactic's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Virgin Galactic's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting virgin stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

When determining whether Virgin Galactic Holdings is a strong investment it is important to analyze Virgin Galactic's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Virgin Galactic's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Virgin Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Virgin Galactic to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Virgin Galactic Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Virgin Galactic's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.

Complementary Tools for Virgin Stock analysis

When running Virgin Galactic's price analysis, check to measure Virgin Galactic's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Virgin Galactic is operating at the current time. Most of Virgin Galactic's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Virgin Galactic's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Virgin Galactic's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Virgin Galactic to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Virgin Galactic's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Virgin Galactic. If investors know Virgin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Virgin Galactic listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(1.49)
Revenue Per Share
0.02
Quarterly Revenue Growth
2.232
Return On Assets
(0.28)
Return On Equity
(1.02)
The market value of Virgin Galactic Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Virgin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Virgin Galactic's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Virgin Galactic's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Virgin Galactic's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Virgin Galactic's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Virgin Galactic's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Virgin Galactic is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Virgin Galactic's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.