Small Capitalization Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SSCCX Fund | USD 1.01 0.02 1.94% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Small Capitalization Portfolio on the next trading day is expected to be 1.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.74. Small Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Small Capitalization stock prices and determine the direction of Small Capitalization Portfolio's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Small Capitalization's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Small Capitalization to cross-verify your projections. Small |
Most investors in Small Capitalization cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Small Capitalization's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Small Capitalization's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Small Capitalization simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Small Capitalization Portfolio are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Small Capitalization prices get older. Small Capitalization Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Small Capitalization Portfolio on the next trading day is expected to be 1.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0002, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.74.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Small Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Small Capitalization's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Small Capitalization Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Small Capitalization | Small Capitalization Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Small Capitalization Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Small Capitalization's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Small Capitalization's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 2.45, respectively. We have considered Small Capitalization's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Small Capitalization mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Small Capitalization mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 107.8587 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -4.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0123 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0117 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.7375 |
Predictive Modules for Small Capitalization
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Small Capitalization. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Small Capitalization's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Small Capitalization
For every potential investor in Small, whether a beginner or expert, Small Capitalization's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Small Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Small. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Small Capitalization's price trends.Small Capitalization Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Small Capitalization mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Small Capitalization could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Small Capitalization by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Small Capitalization Technical and Predictive Analytics
The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Small Capitalization's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Small Capitalization's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Small Capitalization Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Small Capitalization mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Small Capitalization shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Small Capitalization mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Small Capitalization Portfolio entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.01 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.01 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.02) |
Small Capitalization Risk Indicators
The analysis of Small Capitalization's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Small Capitalization's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting small mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.13 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Variance | 2.04 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.74 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.56 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.49) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Small Capitalization in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Small Capitalization's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Small Capitalization options trading.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Small Capitalization to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Small Capitalization information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Small Capitalization's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.