Saratoga Small Mutual Fund Forecast - Polynomial Regression

SSCYX
 Fund
  

USD 5.68  0.14  2.53%   

Saratoga Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Saratoga Small historical stock prices and determine the direction of Saratoga Small Capitalization's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Saratoga Small historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Saratoga Small to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Saratoga Small cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Saratoga Small's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Saratoga Small's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Saratoga Small polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Saratoga Small Capitalization as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Saratoga Small Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Saratoga Small Capitalization on the next trading day is expected to be 5.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01703, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.27.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Saratoga Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Saratoga Small's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Saratoga Small Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Saratoga SmallSaratoga Small Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Saratoga Small Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Saratoga Small's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Saratoga Small's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.03 and 6.89, respectively. We have considered Saratoga Small's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 5.68
5.46
Expected Value
6.89
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Saratoga Small mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Saratoga Small mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.0377
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1028
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0172
SAESum of the absolute errors6.2709
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Saratoga Small historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Saratoga Small

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Saratoga Small Capit. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Saratoga Small's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Saratoga Small in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
4.255.687.11
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
4.335.767.19
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Saratoga Small. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Saratoga Small's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Saratoga Small's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Saratoga Small Capit.

Other Forecasting Options for Saratoga Small

For every potential investor in Saratoga, whether a beginner or expert, Saratoga Small's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Saratoga Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Saratoga. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Saratoga Small's price trends.

Saratoga Small Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Saratoga Small mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Saratoga Small could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Saratoga Small by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Merck CompanyAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelone IncCVS CorpChevron CorpHome DepotInternational BusinessIntel CorpMetlifeATT IncTarget Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Saratoga Small Capit Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Saratoga Small's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Saratoga Small's current price.

Saratoga Small Risk Indicators

The analysis of Saratoga Small's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Saratoga Small's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Saratoga Small stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Saratoga Small without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

Did you try this?

Run Risk-Return Analysis Now

   

Risk-Return Analysis

View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume
All  Next Launch Module

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Saratoga Small to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Saratoga Small Capit price analysis, check to measure Saratoga Small's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Saratoga Small is operating at the current time. Most of Saratoga Small's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Saratoga Small's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Saratoga Small's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Saratoga Small to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Transaction History
View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance
Go
Correlation Analysis
Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated
Go
Financial Widgets
Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets
Go
Price Ceiling Movement
Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments
Go
Money Flow Index
Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators
Go
Alpha Finder
Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk
Go
Fundamentals Comparison
Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities
Go
Piotroski F Score
Get Piotroski F Score based on binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals
Go
Sync Your Broker
Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors.
Go
Options Analysis
Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios
Go
Analyst Recommendations
Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories
Go
Price Transformation
Use Price Transformation models to analyze depth of different equity instruments across global markets
Go
Please note, there is a significant difference between Saratoga Small's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Saratoga Small value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Saratoga Small's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.