Saratoga Small Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

SSCYX
 Fund
  

USD 5.68  0.14  2.53%   

Saratoga Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Saratoga Small historical stock prices and determine the direction of Saratoga Small Capitalization's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Saratoga Small historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Saratoga Small to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Saratoga Small cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Saratoga Small's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Saratoga Small's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Saratoga Small simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Saratoga Small Capitalization are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Saratoga Small Capit prices get older.

Saratoga Small Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of September

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Saratoga Small Capitalization on the next trading day is expected to be 5.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.008027, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.46.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Saratoga Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Saratoga Small's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Saratoga Small Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Saratoga SmallSaratoga Small Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Saratoga Small Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Saratoga Small's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Saratoga Small's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.25 and 7.11, respectively. We have considered Saratoga Small's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 5.68
5.68
Expected Value
7.11
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Saratoga Small mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Saratoga Small mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.4476
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.003
MADMean absolute deviation0.0743
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0124
SAESum of the absolute errors4.46
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Saratoga Small Capitalization forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Saratoga Small observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Saratoga Small

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Saratoga Small Capit. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Saratoga Small's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Saratoga Small in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
4.255.687.11
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
4.335.767.19
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Saratoga Small. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Saratoga Small's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Saratoga Small's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Saratoga Small Capit.

Other Forecasting Options for Saratoga Small

For every potential investor in Saratoga, whether a beginner or expert, Saratoga Small's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Saratoga Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Saratoga. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Saratoga Small's price trends.

Saratoga Small Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Saratoga Small mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Saratoga Small could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Saratoga Small by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Merck CompanyAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelone IncCVS CorpChevron CorpHome DepotInternational BusinessIntel CorpMetlifeATT IncTarget Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Saratoga Small Capit Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Saratoga Small's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Saratoga Small's current price.

Saratoga Small Risk Indicators

The analysis of Saratoga Small's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Saratoga Small's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Saratoga Small stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Saratoga Small in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Saratoga Small's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Saratoga Small options trading.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Saratoga Small to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Saratoga Small Capit price analysis, check to measure Saratoga Small's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Saratoga Small is operating at the current time. Most of Saratoga Small's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Saratoga Small's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Saratoga Small's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Saratoga Small to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Portfolio Manager
State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital
Go
Portfolio Volatility
Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk
Go
Transaction History
View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance
Go
CEO Directory
Screen CEOs from public companies around the world
Go
Stock Tickers
Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites
Go
Please note, there is a significant difference between Saratoga Small's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Saratoga Small value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Saratoga Small's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.