Shockwave Medical Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

SWAV Stock  USD 322.61  6.54  2.07%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Shockwave Medical on the next trading day is expected to be 325.61 with a mean absolute deviation of  4.66  and the sum of the absolute errors of 279.68. Shockwave Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Shockwave Medical stock prices and determine the direction of Shockwave Medical's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Shockwave Medical's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Shockwave Medical's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Shockwave Medical's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Shockwave Medical fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Shockwave Medical to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Shockwave Stock please use our How to Invest in Shockwave Medical guide.
  
At this time, Shockwave Medical's Inventory Turnover is fairly stable compared to the past year. Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to climb to 7.77 in 2024, whereas Payables Turnover is likely to drop 6.86 in 2024. . Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to climb to about 260.8 M in 2024, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 33.7 M in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Shockwave Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Shockwave Medical's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Shockwave Medical's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Shockwave Medical stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Shockwave Medical's open interest, investors have to compare it to Shockwave Medical's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Shockwave Medical is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Shockwave. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Shockwave Medical cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Shockwave Medical's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Shockwave Medical's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Shockwave Medical - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Shockwave Medical prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Shockwave Medical price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Shockwave Medical.

Shockwave Medical Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Shockwave Medical on the next trading day is expected to be 325.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.66, mean absolute percentage error of 44.48, and the sum of the absolute errors of 279.68.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Shockwave Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Shockwave Medical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Shockwave Medical Stock Forecast Pattern

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Shockwave Medical Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Shockwave Medical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Shockwave Medical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 323.00 and 328.22, respectively. We have considered Shockwave Medical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
322.61
323.00
Downside
325.61
Expected Value
328.22
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Shockwave Medical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Shockwave Medical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.6264
MADMean absolute deviation4.6614
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0187
SAESum of the absolute errors279.6842
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Shockwave Medical observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Shockwave Medical observations.

Predictive Modules for Shockwave Medical

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Shockwave Medical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Shockwave Medical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
316.84319.45354.87
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
303.20305.81354.87
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
277.90308.64339.38
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
246.45270.82300.61
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Shockwave Medical. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Shockwave Medical's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Shockwave Medical's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Shockwave Medical.

Other Forecasting Options for Shockwave Medical

For every potential investor in Shockwave, whether a beginner or expert, Shockwave Medical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Shockwave Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Shockwave. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Shockwave Medical's price trends.

Shockwave Medical Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Shockwave Medical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Shockwave Medical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Shockwave Medical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Shockwave Medical Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Shockwave Medical's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Shockwave Medical's current price.

Shockwave Medical Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Shockwave Medical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Shockwave Medical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Shockwave Medical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Shockwave Medical entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Shockwave Medical Risk Indicators

The analysis of Shockwave Medical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Shockwave Medical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting shockwave stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Shockwave Medical Investors Sentiment

The influence of Shockwave Medical's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Shockwave. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Shockwave Medical's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Shockwave. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Shockwave can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Shockwave Medical. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Shockwave Medical's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Shockwave Medical's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Shockwave Medical's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Shockwave Medical.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Shockwave Medical in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Shockwave Medical's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Shockwave Medical options trading.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

When determining whether Shockwave Medical is a strong investment it is important to analyze Shockwave Medical's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Shockwave Medical's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Shockwave Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Shockwave Medical to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Shockwave Stock please use our How to Invest in Shockwave Medical guide.
Note that the Shockwave Medical information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Shockwave Medical's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.

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When running Shockwave Medical's price analysis, check to measure Shockwave Medical's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Shockwave Medical is operating at the current time. Most of Shockwave Medical's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Shockwave Medical's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Shockwave Medical's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Shockwave Medical to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Shockwave Medical's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Shockwave Medical. If investors know Shockwave will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Shockwave Medical listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.69)
Earnings Share
3.86
Revenue Per Share
19.894
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.409
Return On Assets
0.0938
The market value of Shockwave Medical is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Shockwave that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Shockwave Medical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Shockwave Medical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Shockwave Medical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Shockwave Medical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Shockwave Medical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Shockwave Medical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Shockwave Medical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.