Skyworks Solutions Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

SWKS Stock  USD 108.32  0.43  0.40%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Skyworks Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 108.90 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.66  and the sum of the absolute errors of 99.79. Skyworks Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Skyworks Solutions stock prices and determine the direction of Skyworks Solutions's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Skyworks Solutions' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Skyworks Solutions' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Skyworks Solutions' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Skyworks Solutions fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Skyworks Solutions to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Skyworks Stock please use our How to Invest in Skyworks Solutions guide.
  
Inventory Turnover is likely to gain to 5.65 in 2024, whereas Payables Turnover is likely to drop 7.01 in 2024. . Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to gain to about 1.5 B in 2024, whereas Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 126.4 M in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-05 Skyworks Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Skyworks Solutions' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Skyworks Solutions' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Skyworks Solutions stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Skyworks Solutions' open interest, investors have to compare it to Skyworks Solutions' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Skyworks Solutions is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Skyworks. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Skyworks Solutions cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Skyworks Solutions' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Skyworks Solutions' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Skyworks Solutions - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Skyworks Solutions prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Skyworks Solutions price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Skyworks Solutions.

Skyworks Solutions Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Skyworks Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 108.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.66, mean absolute percentage error of 4.56, and the sum of the absolute errors of 99.79.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Skyworks Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Skyworks Solutions' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Skyworks Solutions Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Skyworks SolutionsSkyworks Solutions Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Skyworks Solutions Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Skyworks Solutions' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Skyworks Solutions' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 107.08 and 110.73, respectively. We have considered Skyworks Solutions' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
108.32
107.08
Downside
108.90
Expected Value
110.73
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Skyworks Solutions stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Skyworks Solutions stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.3371
MADMean absolute deviation1.6631
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0159
SAESum of the absolute errors99.7876
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Skyworks Solutions observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Skyworks Solutions observations.

Predictive Modules for Skyworks Solutions

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Skyworks Solutions. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Skyworks Solutions' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
106.47108.32110.17
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
104.53106.38119.15
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
101.15105.32109.48
Details
31 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
109.39120.21133.43
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Skyworks Solutions. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Skyworks Solutions' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Skyworks Solutions' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Skyworks Solutions.

Other Forecasting Options for Skyworks Solutions

For every potential investor in Skyworks, whether a beginner or expert, Skyworks Solutions' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Skyworks Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Skyworks. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Skyworks Solutions' price trends.

Skyworks Solutions Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Skyworks Solutions stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Skyworks Solutions could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Skyworks Solutions by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Skyworks Solutions Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Skyworks Solutions' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Skyworks Solutions' current price.

Skyworks Solutions Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Skyworks Solutions stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Skyworks Solutions shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Skyworks Solutions stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Skyworks Solutions entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Skyworks Solutions Risk Indicators

The analysis of Skyworks Solutions' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Skyworks Solutions' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting skyworks stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Skyworks Solutions Investors Sentiment

The influence of Skyworks Solutions' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Skyworks. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Skyworks Solutions' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Skyworks. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Skyworks can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Skyworks Solutions. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Skyworks Solutions' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Skyworks Solutions' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Skyworks Solutions' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Skyworks Solutions.

Skyworks Solutions Implied Volatility

    
  26.12  
Skyworks Solutions' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Skyworks Solutions stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Skyworks Solutions' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Skyworks Solutions stock will not fluctuate a lot when Skyworks Solutions' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Skyworks Solutions in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Skyworks Solutions' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Skyworks Solutions options trading.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

When determining whether Skyworks Solutions is a strong investment it is important to analyze Skyworks Solutions' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Skyworks Solutions' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Skyworks Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Skyworks Solutions to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Skyworks Stock please use our How to Invest in Skyworks Solutions guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.

Complementary Tools for Skyworks Stock analysis

When running Skyworks Solutions' price analysis, check to measure Skyworks Solutions' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Skyworks Solutions is operating at the current time. Most of Skyworks Solutions' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Skyworks Solutions' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Skyworks Solutions' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Skyworks Solutions to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Idea Breakdown
Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes
Risk-Return Analysis
View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume
Watchlist Optimization
Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm
Equity Forecasting
Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum
FinTech Suite
Use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities
Is Skyworks Solutions' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Skyworks Solutions. If investors know Skyworks will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Skyworks Solutions listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.25)
Dividend Share
2.6
Earnings Share
5.64
Revenue Per Share
29.133
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.1)
The market value of Skyworks Solutions is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Skyworks that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Skyworks Solutions' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Skyworks Solutions' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Skyworks Solutions' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Skyworks Solutions' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Skyworks Solutions' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Skyworks Solutions is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Skyworks Solutions' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.