Southwestern Energy Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SWN Stock | USD 7.59 0.20 2.71% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Southwestern Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 7.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.21. Southwestern Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Southwestern Energy stock prices and determine the direction of Southwestern Energy's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Southwestern Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Southwestern Energy's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Southwestern Energy's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Southwestern Energy fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Southwestern Energy to cross-verify your projections. Southwestern |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-26 Southwestern Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Southwestern Energy's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Southwestern Energy's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Southwestern Energy stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Southwestern Energy's open interest, investors have to compare it to Southwestern Energy's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Southwestern Energy is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Southwestern. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Southwestern Energy cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Southwestern Energy's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Southwestern Energy's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Southwestern Energy simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Southwestern Energy are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Southwestern Energy prices get older. Southwestern Energy Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Southwestern Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 7.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.21.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Southwestern Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Southwestern Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Southwestern Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
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Southwestern Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Southwestern Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Southwestern Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.07 and 9.10, respectively. We have considered Southwestern Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Southwestern Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Southwestern Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.5657 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0205 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.069 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0098 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.2106 |
Predictive Modules for Southwestern Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Southwestern Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Southwestern Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Southwestern Energy
For every potential investor in Southwestern, whether a beginner or expert, Southwestern Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Southwestern Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Southwestern. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Southwestern Energy's price trends.Southwestern Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Southwestern Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Southwestern Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Southwestern Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Southwestern Energy Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Southwestern Energy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Southwestern Energy's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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Southwestern Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Southwestern Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Southwestern Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Southwestern Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Southwestern Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Southwestern Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Southwestern Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Southwestern Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting southwestern stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9842 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8162 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Variance | 2.14 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.18 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6663 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.20) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Southwestern Energy Investors Sentiment
The influence of Southwestern Energy's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Southwestern. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Southwestern Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Southwestern. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Southwestern can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Southwestern Energy. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Southwestern Energy's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Southwestern Energy's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Southwestern Energy's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Southwestern Energy.
Southwestern Energy Implied Volatility | 51.44 |
Southwestern Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Southwestern Energy stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Southwestern Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Southwestern Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Southwestern Energy's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Southwestern Energy in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Southwestern Energy's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Southwestern Energy options trading.
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When determining whether Southwestern Energy offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Southwestern Energy's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Southwestern Energy Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Southwestern Energy Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Southwestern Energy to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Southwestern Stock, please use our How to Invest in Southwestern Energy guide.You can also try the AI Investment Finder module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.
Complementary Tools for Southwestern Stock analysis
When running Southwestern Energy's price analysis, check to measure Southwestern Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Southwestern Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Southwestern Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Southwestern Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Southwestern Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Southwestern Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Southwestern Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Southwestern Energy. If investors know Southwestern will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Southwestern Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.90) | Earnings Share 1.41 | Revenue Per Share 5.924 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.50) | Return On Assets 0.1589 |
The market value of Southwestern Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Southwestern that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Southwestern Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Southwestern Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Southwestern Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Southwestern Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Southwestern Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Southwestern Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Southwestern Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.