SpringWorks Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

SWTX Stock  USD 40.10  2.37  5.58%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of SpringWorks Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 40.87 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.26  and the sum of the absolute errors of 74.54. SpringWorks Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast SpringWorks Therapeutics stock prices and determine the direction of SpringWorks Therapeutics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of SpringWorks Therapeutics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although SpringWorks Therapeutics' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of SpringWorks Therapeutics' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of SpringWorks Therapeutics fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SpringWorks Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy SpringWorks Stock please use our How to Invest in SpringWorks Therapeutics guide.
  
Inventory Turnover is likely to drop to 0.11 in 2024. Payables Turnover is likely to drop to 0.05 in 2024. Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 49.5 M in 2024. Net Loss is likely to rise to about (237.2 M) in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 SpringWorks Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast SpringWorks Therapeutics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in SpringWorks Therapeutics' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for SpringWorks Therapeutics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current SpringWorks Therapeutics' open interest, investors have to compare it to SpringWorks Therapeutics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of SpringWorks Therapeutics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in SpringWorks. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in SpringWorks Therapeutics cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the SpringWorks Therapeutics' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets SpringWorks Therapeutics' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for SpringWorks Therapeutics - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When SpringWorks Therapeutics prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in SpringWorks Therapeutics price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of SpringWorks Therapeutics.

SpringWorks Therapeutics Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of April

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of SpringWorks Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 40.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.26, mean absolute percentage error of 2.59, and the sum of the absolute errors of 74.54.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SpringWorks Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SpringWorks Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

SpringWorks Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern

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SpringWorks Therapeutics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting SpringWorks Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SpringWorks Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 37.60 and 44.14, respectively. We have considered SpringWorks Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
40.10
40.87
Expected Value
44.14
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SpringWorks Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SpringWorks Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.3639
MADMean absolute deviation1.2634
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0266
SAESum of the absolute errors74.5411
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past SpringWorks Therapeutics observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older SpringWorks Therapeutics observations.

Predictive Modules for SpringWorks Therapeutics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SpringWorks Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of SpringWorks Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
36.6339.9043.17
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
39.9443.2146.48
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
45.6550.1755.69
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-1.49-1.18-0.76
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as SpringWorks Therapeutics. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against SpringWorks Therapeutics' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, SpringWorks Therapeutics' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in SpringWorks Therapeutics.

Other Forecasting Options for SpringWorks Therapeutics

For every potential investor in SpringWorks, whether a beginner or expert, SpringWorks Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SpringWorks Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SpringWorks. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SpringWorks Therapeutics' price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

SpringWorks Therapeutics Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of SpringWorks Therapeutics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of SpringWorks Therapeutics' current price.

SpringWorks Therapeutics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SpringWorks Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SpringWorks Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SpringWorks Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify SpringWorks Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

SpringWorks Therapeutics Risk Indicators

The analysis of SpringWorks Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SpringWorks Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting springworks stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

SpringWorks Therapeutics Investors Sentiment

The influence of SpringWorks Therapeutics' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in SpringWorks. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to SpringWorks Therapeutics' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in SpringWorks. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding SpringWorks can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around SpringWorks Therapeutics. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
SpringWorks Therapeutics' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for SpringWorks Therapeutics' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average SpringWorks Therapeutics' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on SpringWorks Therapeutics.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards SpringWorks Therapeutics in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, SpringWorks Therapeutics' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from SpringWorks Therapeutics options trading.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

When determining whether SpringWorks Therapeutics offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of SpringWorks Therapeutics' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Springworks Therapeutics Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Springworks Therapeutics Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SpringWorks Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy SpringWorks Stock please use our How to Invest in SpringWorks Therapeutics guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.

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Is SpringWorks Therapeutics' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of SpringWorks Therapeutics. If investors know SpringWorks will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about SpringWorks Therapeutics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(5.15)
Revenue Per Share
0.086
Return On Assets
(0.32)
Return On Equity
(0.55)
The market value of SpringWorks Therapeutics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of SpringWorks that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of SpringWorks Therapeutics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is SpringWorks Therapeutics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because SpringWorks Therapeutics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect SpringWorks Therapeutics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between SpringWorks Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if SpringWorks Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, SpringWorks Therapeutics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.