Synchrony Financial Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

SYF Stock  USD 41.57  0.77  1.89%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Synchrony Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 41.57 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.52  and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.49. Synchrony Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Synchrony Financial stock prices and determine the direction of Synchrony Financial's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Synchrony Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Synchrony Financial's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Synchrony Financial's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Synchrony Financial fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Synchrony Financial to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Synchrony Stock please use our How to Invest in Synchrony Financial guide.
  
The Synchrony Financial's current Inventory Turnover is estimated to increase to 0.24. The Synchrony Financial's current Receivables Turnover is estimated to increase to 0.17. The Synchrony Financial's current Common Stock Shares Outstanding is estimated to increase to about 562.4 M, while Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is projected to decrease to roughly 2.8 B.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Synchrony Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Synchrony Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Synchrony Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Synchrony Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Synchrony Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to Synchrony Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Synchrony Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Synchrony. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Synchrony Financial cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Synchrony Financial's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Synchrony Financial's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Synchrony Financial simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Synchrony Financial are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Synchrony Financial prices get older.

Synchrony Financial Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of April

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Synchrony Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 41.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52, mean absolute percentage error of 0.41, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.49.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Synchrony Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Synchrony Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Synchrony Financial Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Synchrony FinancialSynchrony Financial Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Synchrony Financial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Synchrony Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Synchrony Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 40.03 and 43.11, respectively. We have considered Synchrony Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
41.57
41.57
Expected Value
43.11
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Synchrony Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Synchrony Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.3884
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0642
MADMean absolute deviation0.5248
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0128
SAESum of the absolute errors31.49
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Synchrony Financial forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Synchrony Financial observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Synchrony Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Synchrony Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Synchrony Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
39.2540.7942.33
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
36.9438.4844.88
Details
19 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
33.1136.3940.39
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.031.361.69
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Synchrony Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Synchrony Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Synchrony Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Synchrony Financial.

Other Forecasting Options for Synchrony Financial

For every potential investor in Synchrony, whether a beginner or expert, Synchrony Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Synchrony Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Synchrony. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Synchrony Financial's price trends.

Synchrony Financial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Synchrony Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Synchrony Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Synchrony Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Synchrony Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Synchrony Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Synchrony Financial's current price.

Synchrony Financial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Synchrony Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Synchrony Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Synchrony Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Synchrony Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Synchrony Financial Risk Indicators

The analysis of Synchrony Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Synchrony Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting synchrony stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Synchrony Financial Investors Sentiment

The influence of Synchrony Financial's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Synchrony. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Synchrony Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Synchrony. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Synchrony can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Synchrony Financial. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Synchrony Financial's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Synchrony Financial's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Synchrony Financial's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Synchrony Financial.

Synchrony Financial Implied Volatility

    
  35.9  
Synchrony Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Synchrony Financial stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Synchrony Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Synchrony Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Synchrony Financial's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Synchrony Financial in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Synchrony Financial's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Synchrony Financial options trading.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

When determining whether Synchrony Financial is a strong investment it is important to analyze Synchrony Financial's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Synchrony Financial's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Synchrony Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Synchrony Financial to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Synchrony Stock please use our How to Invest in Synchrony Financial guide.
You can also try the Financial Widgets module to easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.

Complementary Tools for Synchrony Stock analysis

When running Synchrony Financial's price analysis, check to measure Synchrony Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Synchrony Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Synchrony Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Synchrony Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Synchrony Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Synchrony Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Portfolio Rebalancing
Analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets
Pair Correlation
Compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments
Portfolio Manager
State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital
Commodity Channel
Use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum
Instant Ratings
Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Is Synchrony Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Synchrony Financial. If investors know Synchrony will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Synchrony Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.18)
Dividend Share
0.96
Earnings Share
5.19
Revenue Per Share
18.191
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.02)
The market value of Synchrony Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Synchrony that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Synchrony Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Synchrony Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Synchrony Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Synchrony Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Synchrony Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Synchrony Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Synchrony Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.