TAL Education Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

TAL Stock  USD 11.35  0.09  0.80%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of TAL Education Group on the next trading day is expected to be 9.56 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.73  and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.02. TAL Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast TAL Education stock prices and determine the direction of TAL Education Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of TAL Education's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although TAL Education's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of TAL Education's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of TAL Education fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TAL Education to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, TAL Education's Receivables Turnover is quite stable compared to the past year. Asset Turnover is expected to rise to 0.70 this year, although the value of Inventory Turnover will most likely fall to 54.01. . The value of Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to slide to about 576.6 M. Net Loss is expected to rise to about (104.7 M) this year.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-05 TAL Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast TAL Education's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in TAL Education's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for TAL Education stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current TAL Education's open interest, investors have to compare it to TAL Education's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of TAL Education is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in TAL. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in TAL Education cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the TAL Education's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets TAL Education's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
TAL Education polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for TAL Education Group as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

TAL Education Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of TAL Education Group on the next trading day is expected to be 9.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.73, mean absolute percentage error of 0.77, and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.02.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TAL Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TAL Education's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

TAL Education Stock Forecast Pattern

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TAL Education Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting TAL Education's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. TAL Education's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.59 and 13.52, respectively. We have considered TAL Education's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11.35
9.56
Expected Value
13.52
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TAL Education stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TAL Education stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.6882
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.7261
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0582
SAESum of the absolute errors45.017
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the TAL Education historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for TAL Education

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TAL Education Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of TAL Education's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
7.3811.3515.32
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
5.299.2613.23
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
10.2612.6615.07
Details
19 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
7.678.439.36
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as TAL Education. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against TAL Education's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, TAL Education's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in TAL Education Group.

Other Forecasting Options for TAL Education

For every potential investor in TAL, whether a beginner or expert, TAL Education's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. TAL Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in TAL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying TAL Education's price trends.

TAL Education Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with TAL Education stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of TAL Education could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing TAL Education by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

TAL Education Group Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of TAL Education's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of TAL Education's current price.

TAL Education Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how TAL Education stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading TAL Education shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying TAL Education stock market strength indicators, traders can identify TAL Education Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

TAL Education Risk Indicators

The analysis of TAL Education's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in TAL Education's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

TAL Education Investors Sentiment

The influence of TAL Education's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in TAL. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to TAL Education's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in TAL. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding TAL can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around TAL Education Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
TAL Education's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for TAL Education's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average TAL Education's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on TAL Education.

TAL Education Implied Volatility

    
  52.44  
TAL Education's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of TAL Education Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if TAL Education's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that TAL Education stock will not fluctuate a lot when TAL Education's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards TAL Education in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, TAL Education's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from TAL Education options trading.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

When determining whether TAL Education Group is a strong investment it is important to analyze TAL Education's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact TAL Education's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding TAL Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TAL Education to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the TAL Education Group information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other TAL Education's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.

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When running TAL Education's price analysis, check to measure TAL Education's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy TAL Education is operating at the current time. Most of TAL Education's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of TAL Education's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move TAL Education's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of TAL Education to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is TAL Education's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of TAL Education. If investors know TAL will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about TAL Education listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.77)
Earnings Share
(0.11)
Revenue Per Share
2.152
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.605
Return On Assets
(0.01)
The market value of TAL Education Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of TAL that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of TAL Education's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is TAL Education's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because TAL Education's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect TAL Education's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between TAL Education's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if TAL Education is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, TAL Education's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.