Toughbuilt Industries Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| TBLT Stock | USD 2.24 0.06 2.61% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Toughbuilt Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 2.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.58. Toughbuilt Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Toughbuilt Industries stock prices and determine the direction of Toughbuilt Industries's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Toughbuilt Industries' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Toughbuilt Industries' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Toughbuilt Industries' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Toughbuilt Industries fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Toughbuilt Industries to cross-verify your projections. Toughbuilt |
Most investors in Toughbuilt Industries cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Toughbuilt Industries' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Toughbuilt Industries' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Toughbuilt Industries - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Toughbuilt Industries prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Toughbuilt Industries price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Toughbuilt Industries. Toughbuilt Industries Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Toughbuilt Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 2.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.58.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Toughbuilt Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Toughbuilt Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Toughbuilt Industries Stock Forecast Pattern
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Toughbuilt Industries Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Toughbuilt Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Toughbuilt Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 7.60, respectively. We have considered Toughbuilt Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Toughbuilt Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Toughbuilt Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0384 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1624 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0432 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.581 |
Predictive Modules for Toughbuilt Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Toughbuilt Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Toughbuilt Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Toughbuilt Industries
For every potential investor in Toughbuilt, whether a beginner or expert, Toughbuilt Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Toughbuilt Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Toughbuilt. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Toughbuilt Industries' price trends.Toughbuilt Industries Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Toughbuilt Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Toughbuilt Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Toughbuilt Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Toughbuilt Industries Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Toughbuilt Industries' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Toughbuilt Industries' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Toughbuilt Industries Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Toughbuilt Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Toughbuilt Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Toughbuilt Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Toughbuilt Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Toughbuilt Industries Risk Indicators
The analysis of Toughbuilt Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Toughbuilt Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting toughbuilt stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.85 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.31 | |||
| Variance | 28.17 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Toughbuilt Industries is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Toughbuilt Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Toughbuilt Industries Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Toughbuilt Industries Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Toughbuilt Industries to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Toughbuilt Stock please use our How to Invest in Toughbuilt Industries guide.You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Complementary Tools for Toughbuilt Stock analysis
When running Toughbuilt Industries' price analysis, check to measure Toughbuilt Industries' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Toughbuilt Industries is operating at the current time. Most of Toughbuilt Industries' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Toughbuilt Industries' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Toughbuilt Industries' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Toughbuilt Industries to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Toughbuilt Industries' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Toughbuilt Industries. If investors know Toughbuilt will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Toughbuilt Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (197.60) | Revenue Per Share 309.748 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.32) | Return On Assets (0.42) | Return On Equity (1.77) |
The market value of Toughbuilt Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Toughbuilt that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Toughbuilt Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Toughbuilt Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Toughbuilt Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Toughbuilt Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Toughbuilt Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Toughbuilt Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Toughbuilt Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.