VanEck AEX Etf Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| TDT Etf | EUR 86.04 0.59 0.68% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of VanEck AEX UCITS on the next trading day is expected to be 87.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.63 and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.52. VanEck Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast VanEck AEX stock prices and determine the direction of VanEck AEX UCITS's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of VanEck AEX's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VanEck AEX to cross-verify your projections. VanEck |
Most investors in VanEck AEX cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, etf markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the VanEck AEX's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets VanEck AEX's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
VanEck AEX polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for VanEck AEX UCITS as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. VanEck AEX Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of VanEck AEX UCITS on the next trading day is expected to be 87.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.63, mean absolute percentage error of 0.58, and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.52.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VanEck Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VanEck AEX's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
VanEck AEX Etf Forecast Pattern
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VanEck AEX Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting VanEck AEX's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. VanEck AEX's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 87.02 and 88.44, respectively. We have considered VanEck AEX's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VanEck AEX etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VanEck AEX etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.5644 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6315 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0073 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 38.5219 |
Predictive Modules for VanEck AEX
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VanEck AEX UCITS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of VanEck AEX's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for VanEck AEX
For every potential investor in VanEck, whether a beginner or expert, VanEck AEX's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. VanEck Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in VanEck. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying VanEck AEX's price trends.VanEck AEX Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with VanEck AEX etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of VanEck AEX could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing VanEck AEX by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VanEck AEX UCITS Technical and Predictive Analytics
The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of VanEck AEX's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of VanEck AEX's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
VanEck AEX Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how VanEck AEX etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading VanEck AEX shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying VanEck AEX etf market strength indicators, traders can identify VanEck AEX UCITS entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 76.39 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.05) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 86.12 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 86.09 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.37) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.59) |
VanEck AEX Risk Indicators
The analysis of VanEck AEX's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in VanEck AEX's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vaneck etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5257 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.3181 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7132 | |||
| Variance | 0.5087 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.3906 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1012 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.60) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VanEck AEX to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.