FRANKLIN MUTUAL Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

TEDRX Fund  USD 27.83  0.21  0.75%   
FRANKLIN Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast FRANKLIN MUTUAL historical stock prices and determine the direction of FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLOBAL's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of FRANKLIN MUTUAL historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of FRANKLIN MUTUAL to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in FRANKLIN MUTUAL cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the FRANKLIN MUTUAL's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets FRANKLIN MUTUAL's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for FRANKLIN MUTUAL is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLOBAL value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

FRANKLIN MUTUAL Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 8th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLOBAL on the next trading day is expected to be 27.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.84.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FRANKLIN Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FRANKLIN MUTUAL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

FRANKLIN MUTUAL Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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FRANKLIN MUTUAL Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting FRANKLIN MUTUAL's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FRANKLIN MUTUAL's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.59 and 28.55, respectively. We have considered FRANKLIN MUTUAL's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 27.83
27.57
Expected Value
28.55
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FRANKLIN MUTUAL mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FRANKLIN MUTUAL mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.3683
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2105
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0079
SAESum of the absolute errors12.8397
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLOBAL. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict FRANKLIN MUTUAL. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for FRANKLIN MUTUAL

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLOBAL. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of FRANKLIN MUTUAL's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of FRANKLIN MUTUAL in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
26.8827.8628.84
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
27.6528.6329.61
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
26.5327.4728.41
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as FRANKLIN MUTUAL. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against FRANKLIN MUTUAL's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, FRANKLIN MUTUAL's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLOBAL.

Other Forecasting Options for FRANKLIN MUTUAL

For every potential investor in FRANKLIN, whether a beginner or expert, FRANKLIN MUTUAL's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FRANKLIN Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FRANKLIN. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FRANKLIN MUTUAL's price trends.

FRANKLIN MUTUAL Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with FRANKLIN MUTUAL mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of FRANKLIN MUTUAL could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FRANKLIN MUTUAL by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
WisdomTree EmergingMATSON MONEY USProFunds - MoneyBLACKROCK EXCHANGEDWS Money MarketDWS Government MoneyJP Morgan Exchange-TradedAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelOneCVS Health CorpChevron Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLOBAL Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of FRANKLIN MUTUAL's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of FRANKLIN MUTUAL's current price.

FRANKLIN MUTUAL Risk Indicators

The analysis of FRANKLIN MUTUAL's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FRANKLIN MUTUAL's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting FRANKLIN MUTUAL stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in FRANKLIN MUTUAL without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of FRANKLIN MUTUAL to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.

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When running FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLOBAL price analysis, check to measure FRANKLIN MUTUAL's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy FRANKLIN MUTUAL is operating at the current time. Most of FRANKLIN MUTUAL's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of FRANKLIN MUTUAL's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move FRANKLIN MUTUAL's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of FRANKLIN MUTUAL to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between FRANKLIN MUTUAL's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine FRANKLIN MUTUAL value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, FRANKLIN MUTUAL's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.