Franklin Mutual Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

TEDRX Fund  USD 30.97  0.11  0.36%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Franklin Mutual Global on the next trading day is expected to be 30.37 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.21  and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.97. Franklin Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Franklin Mutual stock prices and determine the direction of Franklin Mutual Global's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Franklin Mutual's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Franklin Mutual to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Franklin Mutual cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Franklin Mutual's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Franklin Mutual's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Franklin Mutual price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Franklin Mutual Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Franklin Mutual Global on the next trading day is expected to be 30.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.97.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Franklin Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Franklin Mutual's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Franklin Mutual Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Franklin Mutual Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Franklin Mutual's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Franklin Mutual's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29.87 and 30.86, respectively. We have considered Franklin Mutual's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
30.97
30.37
Expected Value
30.86
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Franklin Mutual mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Franklin Mutual mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.4146
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2127
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0072
SAESum of the absolute errors12.9721
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Franklin Mutual Global historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Franklin Mutual

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Franklin Mutual Global. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Franklin Mutual's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
30.3830.8831.38
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
30.0930.5931.09
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
30.2730.6230.96
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Franklin Mutual. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Franklin Mutual's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Franklin Mutual's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Franklin Mutual Global.

Other Forecasting Options for Franklin Mutual

For every potential investor in Franklin, whether a beginner or expert, Franklin Mutual's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Franklin Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Franklin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Franklin Mutual's price trends.

Franklin Mutual Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Franklin Mutual mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Franklin Mutual could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Franklin Mutual by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Franklin Mutual Global Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Franklin Mutual's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Franklin Mutual's current price.

Franklin Mutual Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Franklin Mutual mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Franklin Mutual shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Franklin Mutual mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Franklin Mutual Global entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Franklin Mutual Risk Indicators

The analysis of Franklin Mutual's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Franklin Mutual's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting franklin mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Franklin Mutual in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Franklin Mutual's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Franklin Mutual options trading.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Franklin Mutual to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.

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When running Franklin Mutual's price analysis, check to measure Franklin Mutual's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Franklin Mutual is operating at the current time. Most of Franklin Mutual's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Franklin Mutual's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Franklin Mutual's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Franklin Mutual to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Franklin Mutual's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Franklin Mutual is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Franklin Mutual's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.