Thor Industries Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

THO Stock  USD 116.20  1.57  1.37%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Thor Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 117.92 with a mean absolute deviation of  2.17  and the sum of the absolute errors of 127.79. Thor Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Thor Industries stock prices and determine the direction of Thor Industries's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Thor Industries' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Thor Industries' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Thor Industries' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Thor Industries fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Thor Industries to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Thor Stock, please use our How to Invest in Thor Industries guide.
  
At this time, Thor Industries' Inventory Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 28th of March 2024, Payables Turnover is likely to grow to 13.58, while Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to drop 8.76. . As of the 28th of March 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 57.5 M. In addition to that, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop to about 242.3 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Thor Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Thor Industries' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Thor Industries' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Thor Industries stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Thor Industries' open interest, investors have to compare it to Thor Industries' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Thor Industries is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Thor. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Thor Industries cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Thor Industries' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Thor Industries' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Thor Industries works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Thor Industries Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Thor Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 117.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.17, mean absolute percentage error of 12.54, and the sum of the absolute errors of 127.79.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Thor Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Thor Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Thor Industries Stock Forecast Pattern

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Thor Industries Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Thor Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Thor Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 115.33 and 120.51, respectively. We have considered Thor Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
116.20
115.33
Downside
117.92
Expected Value
120.51
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Thor Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Thor Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.4619
MADMean absolute deviation2.166
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0194
SAESum of the absolute errors127.7918
When Thor Industries prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Thor Industries trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Thor Industries observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Thor Industries

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Thor Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Thor Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
113.61116.20118.79
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
100.95103.54127.82
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
110.05114.06118.08
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
83.2791.50101.57
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Thor Industries. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Thor Industries' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Thor Industries' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Thor Industries.

Other Forecasting Options for Thor Industries

For every potential investor in Thor, whether a beginner or expert, Thor Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Thor Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Thor. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Thor Industries' price trends.

Thor Industries Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Thor Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Thor Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Thor Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Thor Industries Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Thor Industries' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Thor Industries' current price.

Thor Industries Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Thor Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Thor Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Thor Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Thor Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Thor Industries Risk Indicators

The analysis of Thor Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Thor Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting thor stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

When determining whether Thor Industries offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Thor Industries' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Thor Industries Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Thor Industries Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Thor Industries to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Thor Stock, please use our How to Invest in Thor Industries guide.
Note that the Thor Industries information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Thor Industries' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.

Complementary Tools for Thor Stock analysis

When running Thor Industries' price analysis, check to measure Thor Industries' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Thor Industries is operating at the current time. Most of Thor Industries' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Thor Industries' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Thor Industries' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Thor Industries to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Thor Industries' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Thor Industries. If investors know Thor will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Thor Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.74)
Dividend Share
1.86
Earnings Share
5.05
Revenue Per Share
194.511
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.06)
The market value of Thor Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Thor that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Thor Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Thor Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Thor Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Thor Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Thor Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Thor Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Thor Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.