The Investment Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| TIHGX Fund | USD 72.49 1.26 1.71% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The Investment House on the next trading day is expected to be 72.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.60 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.69. The Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast The Investment stock prices and determine the direction of The Investment House's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of The Investment's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of The Investment to cross-verify your projections. The |
Most investors in The Investment cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the The Investment's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets The Investment's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for The Investment - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When The Investment prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in The Investment price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Investment House. The Investment Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 17th of April 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The Investment House on the next trading day is expected to be 72.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.60, mean absolute percentage error of 0.64, and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.69.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict The Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that The Investment's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
The Investment Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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The Investment Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting The Investment's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. The Investment's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 71.64 and 73.92, respectively. We have considered The Investment's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of The Investment mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent The Investment mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.151 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.605 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0083 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 35.6925 |
Predictive Modules for The Investment
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Investment House. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of The Investment's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for The Investment
For every potential investor in The, whether a beginner or expert, The Investment's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. The Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in The. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying The Investment's price trends.The Investment Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with The Investment mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of The Investment could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing The Investment by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Investment House Technical and Predictive Analytics
The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of The Investment's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of The Investment's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
The Investment Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how The Investment mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading The Investment shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying The Investment mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify The Investment House entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 72.49 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 72.49 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.63) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.26) |
The Investment Risk Indicators
The analysis of The Investment's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in The Investment's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting the mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8488 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.772 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.12 | |||
| Variance | 1.25 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.9111 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.596 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.95) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of The Investment to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Investment House information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other The Investment's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.