Tiaa-Cref High-Yield Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

TIHPX -  USA Fund  

USD 9.61  0.01  0.10%

Tiaa-Cref Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Tiaa-Cref High-Yield historical stock prices and determine the direction of Tiaa-Cref High-Yield's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Tiaa-Cref High-Yield historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tiaa-Cref High-Yield to cross-verify your projections.

Tiaa-Cref Mutual Fund Forecast 

Most investors in Tiaa-Cref High-Yield cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Tiaa-Cref High-Yield's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Tiaa-Cref High-Yield's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Tiaa-Cref High-Yield is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Tiaa-Cref High-Yield value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Tiaa-Cref High-Yield Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Tiaa-Cref High-Yield on the next trading day is expected to be 9.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01174, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00023993, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.72. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tiaa-Cref Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tiaa-Cref High-Yield's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Tiaa-Cref High-Yield Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Tiaa-Cref High-YieldTiaa-Cref High-Yield Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Tiaa-Cref High-Yield Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Tiaa-Cref High-Yield's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Tiaa-Cref High-Yield's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.46 and 9.82, respectively. We have considered Tiaa-Cref High-Yield's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
23rd of October 2021
Expected Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tiaa-Cref High-Yield mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tiaa-Cref High-Yield mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria109.7753
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0117
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0012
SAESum of the absolute errors0.7161
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Tiaa-Cref High-Yield. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Tiaa-Cref High-Yield. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Tiaa-Cref High-Yield

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tiaa-Cref High-Yield. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Tiaa-Cref High-Yield's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Tiaa-Cref High-Yield in the context of predictive analytics.
LowEstimated ValueHigh
LowReal ValueHigh
Band Projection (param)
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Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Tiaa-Cref High-Yield. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Tiaa-Cref High-Yield's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Tiaa-Cref High-Yield's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Tiaa-Cref High-Yield.

Other Forecasting Options for Tiaa-Cref High-Yield

For every potential investor in Tiaa-Cref, whether a beginner or expert, Tiaa-Cref High-Yield's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Tiaa-Cref Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Tiaa-Cref. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Tiaa-Cref High-Yield's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Tiaa-Cref High-Yield mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Tiaa-Cref High-Yield could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tiaa-Cref High-Yield by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Tiaa-Cref High-Yield Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Tiaa-Cref High-Yield's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Tiaa-Cref High-Yield's current price.

Tiaa-Cref High-Yield Risk Indicators

The analysis of Tiaa-Cref High-Yield's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Tiaa-Cref High-Yield's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Tiaa-Cref High-Yield stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Tiaa-Cref High-Yield Investors Sentiment

The influence of Tiaa-Cref High-Yield's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Tiaa-Cref. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - TIHPX

Tiaa-Cref High-Yield Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are at this time bullish on Tiaa-Cref High-Yield. What is your outlook on investing in Tiaa-Cref High-Yield? Are you bullish or bearish?
98% Bullish
2% Bearish

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tiaa-Cref High-Yield to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Tiaa-Cref High-Yield information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Tiaa-Cref High-Yield's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.

Complementary Tools for Tiaa-Cref Mutual Fund analysis

When running Tiaa-Cref High-Yield price analysis, check to measure Tiaa-Cref High-Yield's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tiaa-Cref High-Yield is operating at the current time. Most of Tiaa-Cref High-Yield's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tiaa-Cref High-Yield's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tiaa-Cref High-Yield's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tiaa-Cref High-Yield to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Tiaa-Cref High-Yield's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Tiaa-Cref High-Yield value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Tiaa-Cref High-Yield's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.