Tilray Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| TLRY Stock | USD 1.72 0.11 6.01% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tilray Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 1.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.90. Tilray Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Tilray stock prices and determine the direction of Tilray Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Tilray's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Tilray's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Tilray's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Tilray fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tilray to cross-verify your projections. Tilray |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Tilray Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Tilray's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Tilray's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Tilray stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Tilray's open interest, investors have to compare it to Tilray's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Tilray is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Tilray. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Tilray cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Tilray's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Tilray's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Tilray works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. Tilray Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tilray Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 1.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.90.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tilray Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tilray's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Tilray Stock Forecast Pattern
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Tilray Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Tilray's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Tilray's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 7.40, respectively. We have considered Tilray's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tilray stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tilray stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -6.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.083 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0401 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.8974 |
Predictive Modules for Tilray
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tilray Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Tilray's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Tilray
For every potential investor in Tilray, whether a beginner or expert, Tilray's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Tilray Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Tilray. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Tilray's price trends.Tilray Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Tilray stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Tilray could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tilray by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Tilray Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Tilray's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Tilray's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Tilray Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Tilray stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Tilray shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Tilray stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Tilray Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Tilray Risk Indicators
The analysis of Tilray's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Tilray's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tilray stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.93 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.62 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.83 | |||
| Variance | 34.05 | |||
| Downside Variance | 24.37 | |||
| Semi Variance | 21.35 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (5.45) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Tilray Investors Sentiment
The influence of Tilray's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Tilray. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Tilray's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Tilray. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Tilray can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Tilray Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Tilray's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Tilray's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Tilray's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Tilray.
Tilray Implied Volatility | 273.36 |
Tilray's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Tilray Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Tilray's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Tilray stock will not fluctuate a lot when Tilray's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Tilray in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Tilray's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Tilray options trading.
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When determining whether Tilray Inc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Tilray's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Tilray Inc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Tilray Inc Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tilray to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Complementary Tools for Tilray Stock analysis
When running Tilray's price analysis, check to measure Tilray's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tilray is operating at the current time. Most of Tilray's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tilray's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tilray's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tilray to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Tilray's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Tilray. If investors know Tilray will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Tilray listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.44) | Revenue Per Share 1.042 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.294 | Return On Assets (0.02) | Return On Equity (0.1) |
The market value of Tilray Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Tilray that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Tilray's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Tilray's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Tilray's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Tilray's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Tilray's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Tilray is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Tilray's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.