Tilray Brands Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

TLRY -  USA Stock  

USD 4.72  0.14  2.88%

Tilray Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Tilray Brands historical stock prices and determine the direction of Tilray Brands's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Tilray Brands historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tilray Brands to cross-verify your projections.
  
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Open Interest Agains t 2022-05-27 Tilray Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Tilray Brands' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Tilray Brands' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Tilray Brands stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Tilray Brands' open interest, investors have to compare it to Tilray Brands' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Tilray Brands is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Tilray. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Tilray Brands cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Tilray Brands' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Tilray Brands' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Tilray Brands is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Tilray Brands value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Tilray Brands Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of May

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Tilray Brands on the next trading day is expected to be 4.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.68. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tilray Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tilray Brands' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Tilray Brands Stock Forecast Pattern

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Tilray Brands Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Tilray Brands' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Tilray Brands' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0472 and 10.17, respectively. We have considered Tilray Brands' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 4.72
0.0472
Downside
4.36
Expected Value
10.17
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tilray Brands stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tilray Brands stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.6609
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3719
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0637
SAESum of the absolute errors22.6849
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Tilray Brands. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Tilray Brands. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Tilray Brands

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tilray Brands. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Tilray Brands' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Tilray Brands in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.234.6710.47
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.234.5710.37
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
4.134.695.24
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Tilray Brands. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Tilray Brands' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Tilray Brands' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Tilray Brands.

Other Forecasting Options for Tilray Brands

For every potential investor in Tilray, whether a beginner or expert, Tilray Brands' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Tilray Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Tilray. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Tilray Brands' price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Tilray Brands stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Tilray Brands could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tilray Brands by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Tilray Brands Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Tilray Brands' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Tilray Brands' current price.

Tilray Brands Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Tilray Brands stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Tilray Brands shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Tilray Brands stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Tilray Brands entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Tilray Brands Risk Indicators

The analysis of Tilray Brands' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Tilray Brands' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Tilray Brands stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Tilray Brands Investors Sentiment

The influence of Tilray Brands' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Tilray. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Tilray Brands Implied Volatility

    
  99.71  
Tilray Brands' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Tilray Brands stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Tilray Brands' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Tilray Brands stock will not fluctuate a lot when Tilray Brands' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Tilray Brands in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Tilray Brands' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Tilray Brands options trading.

Current Sentiment - TLRY

Tilray Brands Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are at this time bullish on Tilray Brands. What is your outlook on investing in Tilray Brands? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tilray Brands to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Tilray Brands information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Tilray Brands' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Commodity Channel Index module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.

Complementary Tools for Tilray Stock analysis

When running Tilray Brands price analysis, check to measure Tilray Brands' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tilray Brands is operating at the current time. Most of Tilray Brands' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tilray Brands' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tilray Brands' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tilray Brands to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Tilray Brands' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Tilray Brands. If investors know Tilray will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Tilray Brands listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Tilray Brands is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Tilray that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Tilray Brands' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Tilray Brands' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Tilray Brands' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Tilray Brands' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Tilray Brands' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Tilray Brands value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Tilray Brands' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.