Trupanion Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

TRUP Stock  USD 27.74  0.64  2.36%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Trupanion on the next trading day is expected to be 27.68 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.03  and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.90. Trupanion Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Trupanion stock prices and determine the direction of Trupanion's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Trupanion's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Trupanion's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Trupanion's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Trupanion fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trupanion to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Trupanion Stock, please use our How to Invest in Trupanion guide.
  
At this time, Trupanion's Fixed Asset Turnover is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 03/28/2024, Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 1.78, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop (1.69). . As of 03/28/2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 28.3 M. In addition to that, Net Loss is likely to grow to about (38.2 M).

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Trupanion Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Trupanion's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Trupanion's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Trupanion stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Trupanion's open interest, investors have to compare it to Trupanion's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Trupanion is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Trupanion. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Trupanion cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Trupanion's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Trupanion's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Trupanion simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Trupanion are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Trupanion prices get older.

Trupanion Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Trupanion on the next trading day is expected to be 27.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.03, mean absolute percentage error of 3.51, and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.90.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Trupanion Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Trupanion's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Trupanion Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest TrupanionTrupanion Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Trupanion Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Trupanion's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Trupanion's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.65 and 33.72, respectively. We have considered Trupanion's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
27.74
27.68
Expected Value
33.72
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Trupanion stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Trupanion stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.3659
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0617
MADMean absolute deviation1.0311
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0382
SAESum of the absolute errors62.8986
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Trupanion forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Trupanion observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Trupanion

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Trupanion. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Trupanion's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
21.5727.6033.63
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
24.3930.4236.45
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
25.6126.9728.34
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
33.6737.0041.07
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Trupanion. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Trupanion's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Trupanion's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Trupanion.

Other Forecasting Options for Trupanion

For every potential investor in Trupanion, whether a beginner or expert, Trupanion's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Trupanion Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Trupanion. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Trupanion's price trends.

Trupanion Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Trupanion stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Trupanion could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Trupanion by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Trupanion Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Trupanion's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Trupanion's current price.

Trupanion Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Trupanion stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Trupanion shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Trupanion stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Trupanion entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Trupanion Risk Indicators

The analysis of Trupanion's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Trupanion's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting trupanion stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

When determining whether Trupanion is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Trupanion Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Trupanion Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Trupanion Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trupanion to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Trupanion Stock, please use our How to Invest in Trupanion guide.
You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..

Complementary Tools for Trupanion Stock analysis

When running Trupanion's price analysis, check to measure Trupanion's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Trupanion is operating at the current time. Most of Trupanion's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Trupanion's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Trupanion's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Trupanion to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Financial Widgets
Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets
Fundamentals Comparison
Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities
Stock Tickers
Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites
Global Markets Map
Get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes
Equity Analysis
Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities
Instant Ratings
Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Idea Analyzer
Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas
Economic Indicators
Top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing
Stock Screener
Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook.
Is Trupanion's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Trupanion. If investors know Trupanion will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Trupanion listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.33)
Earnings Share
(1.08)
Revenue Per Share
26.754
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.203
Return On Assets
(0.03)
The market value of Trupanion is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Trupanion that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Trupanion's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Trupanion's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Trupanion's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Trupanion's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Trupanion's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Trupanion is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Trupanion's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.