TUESDAY MORNING Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

TUEM -  USA Stock  

USD 3.61  0.14  3.73%

TUESDAY Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast TUESDAY MORNING historical stock prices and determine the direction of TUESDAY MORNING CORP's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of TUESDAY MORNING historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of TUESDAY MORNING to cross-verify your projections.

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Most investors in TUESDAY MORNING cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the TUESDAY MORNING's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets TUESDAY MORNING's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for TUESDAY MORNING works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

TUESDAY MORNING Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of August

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of TUESDAY MORNING CORP on the next trading day is expected to be 3.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03624, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.54. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TUESDAY Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TUESDAY MORNING's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

TUESDAY MORNING Stock Forecast Pattern

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TUESDAY MORNING Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting TUESDAY MORNING's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. TUESDAY MORNING's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0361 and 8.03, respectively. We have considered TUESDAY MORNING's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
3.61
1st of August 2021
0.0361
Downside
3.58
Expected Value
8.03
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TUESDAY MORNING stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TUESDAY MORNING stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0245
MADMean absolute deviation0.1447
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0357
SAESum of the absolute errors8.5367
When TUESDAY MORNING CORP prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any TUESDAY MORNING CORP trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent TUESDAY MORNING observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for TUESDAY MORNING

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TUESDAY MORNING CORP. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of TUESDAY MORNING's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of TUESDAY MORNING in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.193.708.15
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.193.788.23
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
3.624.335.05
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as TUESDAY MORNING. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against TUESDAY MORNING's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, TUESDAY MORNING's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in TUESDAY MORNING CORP.

Other Forecasting Options for TUESDAY MORNING

For every potential investor in TUESDAY, whether a beginner or expert, TUESDAY MORNING's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. TUESDAY Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in TUESDAY. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying TUESDAY MORNING's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with TUESDAY MORNING stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of TUESDAY MORNING could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing TUESDAY MORNING by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

TUESDAY MORNING CORP Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of TUESDAY MORNING's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of TUESDAY MORNING's current price.

TUESDAY MORNING Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how TUESDAY MORNING stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading TUESDAY MORNING shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying TUESDAY MORNING stock market strength indicators, traders can identify TUESDAY MORNING CORP entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

TUESDAY MORNING Risk Indicators

The analysis of TUESDAY MORNING's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in TUESDAY MORNING's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting TUESDAY MORNING stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in TUESDAY MORNING without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of TUESDAY MORNING to cross-verify your projections. Note that the TUESDAY MORNING CORP information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other TUESDAY MORNING's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze depth of different equity instruments across global markets.

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When running TUESDAY MORNING CORP price analysis, check to measure TUESDAY MORNING's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy TUESDAY MORNING is operating at the current time. Most of TUESDAY MORNING's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of TUESDAY MORNING's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move TUESDAY MORNING's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of TUESDAY MORNING to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of TUESDAY MORNING CORP is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of TUESDAY that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of TUESDAY MORNING's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is TUESDAY MORNING's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because TUESDAY MORNING's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect TUESDAY MORNING CORP underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between TUESDAY MORNING's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine TUESDAY MORNING value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, TUESDAY MORNING's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.