Short Term Mutual Fund Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average
| TWAVX Fund | USD 9.05 0.00 0.00% |
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Short Term Government Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 9.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.19. Short Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Short |
Most investors in Short Term cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Short Term's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Short Term's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Short Term Government Fund is based on a synthetically constructed Short Termdaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time. Short Term 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 17th of June 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Short Term Government Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 9.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Short Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Short Term's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Short Term Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Short Term | Short Term Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Short Term mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Short Term mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 74.6506 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0221 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0291 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0032 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.1925 |
Predictive Modules for Short Term
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Short Term Government. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Short Term's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Short Term Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Short Term mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Short Term could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Short Term by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Short Term Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Short Term mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Short Term shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Short Term mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Short Term Government Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Short Term Risk Indicators
The analysis of Short Term's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Short Term's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting short mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1529 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.2018 | |||
| Variance | 0.0407 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.| NXPI | NXP Semiconductors NV | |
| MSFT | Microsoft | |
| DIS | Walt Disney |
Other Information on Investing in Short Mutual Fund
Short Term financial ratios help investors to determine whether Short Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Short with respect to the benefits of owning Short Term security.
| Aroon Oscillator Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios | |
| Equity Forecasting Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum | |
| Portfolio Optimization Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk | |
| Instant Ratings Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance |