Twitter Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

TWTR
 Stock
  

USD 53.70  0.21  0.39%   

Twitter Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Twitter historical stock prices and determine the direction of Twitter's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Twitter historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Twitter naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Twitter systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Twitter fundamentals over time.
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Twitter Accounts Payable Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Twitter reported last year Accounts Payable Turnover of 25.55. As of 12/07/2022, Accrued Expenses Turnover is likely to grow to 8.55, while Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 4.06. . As of 12/07/2022, Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to grow to about 29.5 M, while Weighted Average Shares is likely to drop slightly above 647.4 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-09 Twitter Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Twitter's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Twitter's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Twitter stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Twitter's open interest, investors have to compare it to Twitter's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Twitter is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Twitter. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Twitter cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Twitter's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Twitter's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Twitter is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Twitter value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Twitter Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 8th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Twitter on the next trading day is expected to be 53.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.10, mean absolute percentage error of 2.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.03.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Twitter Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Twitter's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Twitter Stock Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Twitter stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Twitter stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.8979
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.0989
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.025
SAESum of the absolute errors67.0311
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Twitter. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Twitter. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Twitter

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Twitter. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Twitter's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Twitter in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
50.1854.1958.20
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
51.4255.4359.44
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
49.9252.4855.04
Details
24 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
45.0068.3195.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Twitter. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Twitter's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Twitter's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Twitter.

Twitter Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Twitter stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Twitter could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Twitter by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Alphabet ClassTencent HoldingsProsus NV ADRThe Travelers CompaniesAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelOneCVS Health CorpChevron CorpHome DepotInternational BusinessIntel
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Twitter Risk Indicators

The analysis of Twitter's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Twitter's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Twitter stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Twitter without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Other Tools for Twitter Stock

When running Twitter price analysis, check to measure Twitter's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Twitter is operating at the current time. Most of Twitter's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Twitter's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Twitter's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Twitter to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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