Twitter Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

TWTR -  USA Stock  

USD 68.63  0.50  0.72%

Twitter Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Twitter historical stock prices and determine the direction of Twitter's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Twitter historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Twitter naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Twitter systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Twitter fundamentals over time.
Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Twitter to cross-verify your projections.

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Twitter Accounts Payable Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Twitter reported last year Accounts Payable Turnover of 20.85. As of 08/03/2021, Accrued Expenses Turnover is likely to grow to 8.70, while Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 3.74. . As of 08/03/2021, Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to grow to about 29.5 M, while Weighted Average Shares is likely to drop slightly above 632.5 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2021-08-06 Twitter Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Twitter's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Twitter's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Twitter stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Twitter's open interest, investors have to compare it to Twitter's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Twitter is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Twitter. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Twitter cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Twitter's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Twitter's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Twitter works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Twitter Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of August

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Twitter on the next trading day is expected to be 68.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.98, mean absolute percentage error of 2.35, and the sum of the absolute errors of 512.31. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Twitter Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Twitter's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Twitter Stock Forecast Pattern

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Twitter Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Twitter's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Twitter's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 65.33 and 72.18, respectively. We have considered Twitter's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
68.63
3rd of August 2021
68.75
Expected Value
72.18
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Twitter stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Twitter stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0567
MADMean absolute deviation0.9833
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0229
SAESum of the absolute errors512.309
When Twitter prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Twitter trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Twitter observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Twitter

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Twitter. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Twitter's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Twitter in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
67.4169.3871.35
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
61.7775.9677.93
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
66.4268.9571.49
Details
24 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
55.0075.2895.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Twitter. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Twitter's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Twitter's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Twitter.

Other Forecasting Options for Twitter

For every potential investor in Twitter, whether a beginner or expert, Twitter's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Twitter Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Twitter. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Twitter's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Twitter stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Twitter could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Twitter by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Twitter Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Twitter's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Twitter's current price.

Twitter Risk Indicators

The analysis of Twitter's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Twitter's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Twitter stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Twitter Investors Sentiment

The influence of Twitter's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Twitter. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - TWTR

Twitter Investor Sentiment

Majority of Macroaxis users are at this time bullish on Twitter. What is your outlook on investing in Twitter? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Additionally, take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Twitter to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Twitter information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Twitter's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.

Complementary Tools for Twitter Stock analysis

When running Twitter price analysis, check to measure Twitter's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Twitter is operating at the current time. Most of Twitter's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Twitter's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Twitter's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Twitter to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Twitter is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Twitter that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Twitter's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Twitter's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Twitter's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Twitter underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Twitter's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Twitter value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Twitter's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.