CVR Partners Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average

UAN Stock  USD 76.69  0.19  0.25%   
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of CVR Partners LP on the next trading day is expected to be 69.41 with a mean absolute deviation of  4.19  and the sum of the absolute errors of 176.05. CVR Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast CVR Partners stock prices and determine the direction of CVR Partners LP's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of CVR Partners' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although CVR Partners' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of CVR Partners' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of CVR Partners fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CVR Partners to cross-verify your projections.
  
As of the 28th of March 2024, Receivables Turnover is likely to grow to 24.06, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 4.68. . As of the 28th of March 2024, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to grow to about 271 M, while Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop about 10 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 CVR Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast CVR Partners' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in CVR Partners' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for CVR Partners stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current CVR Partners' open interest, investors have to compare it to CVR Partners' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of CVR Partners is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in CVR. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in CVR Partners cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the CVR Partners' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets CVR Partners' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for CVR Partners LP is based on a synthetically constructed CVR Partnersdaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

CVR Partners 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of CVR Partners LP on the next trading day is expected to be 69.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.19, mean absolute percentage error of 25.86, and the sum of the absolute errors of 176.05.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CVR Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CVR Partners' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

CVR Partners Stock Forecast Pattern

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CVR Partners Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting CVR Partners' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CVR Partners' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 66.56 and 72.26, respectively. We have considered CVR Partners' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
76.69
69.41
Expected Value
72.26
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CVR Partners stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CVR Partners stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria86.4437
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -1.3709
MADMean absolute deviation4.1916
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.059
SAESum of the absolute errors176.046
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. CVR Partners LP 20-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for CVR Partners

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CVR Partners LP. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CVR Partners' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
72.5375.4178.29
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
36.0038.8884.36
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
76.3676.5576.75
Details
0 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
8.659.5010.55
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as CVR Partners. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against CVR Partners' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, CVR Partners' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in CVR Partners LP.

Other Forecasting Options for CVR Partners

For every potential investor in CVR, whether a beginner or expert, CVR Partners' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CVR Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CVR. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CVR Partners' price trends.

CVR Partners Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CVR Partners stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CVR Partners could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CVR Partners by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

CVR Partners LP Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CVR Partners' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CVR Partners' current price.

CVR Partners Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CVR Partners stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CVR Partners shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CVR Partners stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CVR Partners LP entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

CVR Partners Risk Indicators

The analysis of CVR Partners' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CVR Partners' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cvr stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When determining whether CVR Partners LP offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of CVR Partners' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Cvr Partners Lp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Cvr Partners Lp Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CVR Partners to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the CVR Partners LP information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other CVR Partners' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.

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When running CVR Partners' price analysis, check to measure CVR Partners' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CVR Partners is operating at the current time. Most of CVR Partners' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CVR Partners' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CVR Partners' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CVR Partners to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is CVR Partners' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CVR Partners. If investors know CVR will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CVR Partners listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.90)
Dividend Share
17.8
Earnings Share
16.31
Revenue Per Share
64.473
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.33)
The market value of CVR Partners LP is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CVR that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CVR Partners' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CVR Partners' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CVR Partners' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CVR Partners' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CVR Partners' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CVR Partners is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CVR Partners' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.