Uber Technologies Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| UBER Stock | USD 45.99 0.15 0.33% |
Uber Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Uber Technologies stock prices and determine the direction of Uber Technologies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Uber Technologies historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Uber Technologies naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Uber Technologies systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Uber Technologies fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Uber Technologies to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Uber Stock, please use our How to Invest in Uber Technologies guide.Uber |
Open Interest Against 2023-10-06 Uber Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Uber Technologies' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Uber Technologies' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Uber Technologies stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Uber Technologies' open interest, investors have to compare it to Uber Technologies' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Uber Technologies is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Uber. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Uber Technologies cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Uber Technologies' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Uber Technologies' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Uber Technologies is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Uber Technologies value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Uber Technologies Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of October
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Uber Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 44.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75, mean absolute percentage error of 0.96, and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.69.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Uber Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Uber Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Uber Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern
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Uber Technologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Uber Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Uber Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 42.51 and 46.50, respectively. We have considered Uber Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Uber Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Uber Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.0675 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.749 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0163 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 45.6869 |
Predictive Modules for Uber Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Uber Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Uber Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Uber Technologies in the context of predictive analytics.
Other Forecasting Options for Uber Technologies
For every potential investor in Uber, whether a beginner or expert, Uber Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Uber Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Uber. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Uber Technologies' price trends.Uber Technologies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Uber Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Uber Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Uber Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Uber Technologies Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Uber Technologies' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Uber Technologies' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Uber Technologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of Uber Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Uber Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Uber Technologies stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.62 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.01 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.02 | |||
| Variance | 4.07 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.24 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.02 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.70) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Be your own money manager
Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Uber Technologies without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.Did you try this?
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Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Uber Technologies to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Uber Stock, please use our How to Invest in Uber Technologies guide. Note that the Uber Technologies information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Uber Technologies' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
Complementary Tools for Uber Stock analysis
When running Uber Technologies' price analysis, check to measure Uber Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Uber Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Uber Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Uber Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Uber Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Uber Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Uber Technologies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Uber Technologies. If investors know Uber will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Uber Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.33) | Earnings Share (0.18) | Revenue Per Share 17.478 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.143 | Return On Assets (0.011) |
The market value of Uber Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Uber that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Uber Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Uber Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Uber Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Uber Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Uber Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Uber Technologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Uber Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
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