Uber Technologies Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

UBER -  USA Stock  

USD 38.41  3.10  7.47%

Uber Technologies Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Uber Technologies historical stock prices and determine the direction of Uber Technologies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Uber Technologies historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Also, please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Uber Technologies to cross-verify your projections.

Uber Technologies Stock Forecast 

 
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Open Interest Agains t 2022-01-21 Uber Technologies Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Uber Technologies' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Uber Technologies' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Uber Technologies stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Uber Technologies' open interest, investors have to compare it to Uber Technologies' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Uber Technologies is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Uber Technologies. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Uber Technologies cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Uber Technologies' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Uber Technologies' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Uber Technologies is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Uber Technologies value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Uber Technologies Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 20th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Uber Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 34.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.14, mean absolute percentage error of 2.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 69.84. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Uber Technologies Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Uber Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Uber Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern

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Uber Technologies Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Uber Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Uber Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.27 and 37.81, respectively. We have considered Uber Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
38.41
19th of January 2022
34.54
Expected Value
37.81
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Uber Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Uber Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.8261
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.145
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0276
SAESum of the absolute errors69.8438
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Uber Technologies. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Uber Technologies. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Uber Technologies

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Uber Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Uber Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Uber Technologies in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
34.9838.2041.42
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
36.6639.8843.10
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Uber Technologies. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Uber Technologies' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Uber Technologies' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Uber Technologies.

Other Forecasting Options for Uber Technologies

For every potential investor in Uber Technologies, whether a beginner or expert, Uber Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Uber Technologies Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Uber Technologies. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Uber Technologies' price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Uber Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Uber Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Uber Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Uber Technologies Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Uber Technologies' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Uber Technologies' current price.

Uber Technologies Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Uber Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Uber Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Uber Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Uber Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Uber Technologies Risk Indicators

The analysis of Uber Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Uber Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Uber Technologies stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Uber Technologies Investors Sentiment

The influence of Uber Technologies' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Uber Technologies. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Uber Technologies Implied Volatility

    
  81.12  
Uber Technologies' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Uber Technologies stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Uber Technologies' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Uber Technologies stock will not fluctuate a lot when Uber Technologies' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Uber Technologies in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Uber Technologies' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Uber Technologies options trading.

Current Sentiment - UBER

Uber Technologies Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are unemotional in their outlook on investing in Uber Technologies. What is your outlook on investing in Uber Technologies? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
50% Bullish
50% Bearish
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity..
Also, please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Uber Technologies to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Uber Technologies information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Uber Technologies' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.

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When running Uber Technologies price analysis, check to measure Uber Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Uber Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Uber Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Uber Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Uber Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Uber Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Uber Technologies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Uber Technologies. If investors know Uber Technologies will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Uber Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Uber Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Uber Technologies that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Uber Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Uber Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Uber Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Uber Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Uber Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Uber Technologies value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Uber Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.