UGI Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

UGI Stock  USD 24.16  0.43  1.81%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of UGI Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 24.40 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.64  and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.70. UGI Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast UGI stock prices and determine the direction of UGI Corporation's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of UGI's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although UGI's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of UGI's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of UGI fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of UGI to cross-verify your projections.
  
As of now, UGI's Fixed Asset Turnover is decreasing as compared to previous years. The UGI's current Receivables Turnover is estimated to increase to 12.36, while Inventory Turnover is projected to decrease to 8.62. . The current Common Stock Shares Outstanding is estimated to decrease to about 163.7 M. The UGI's current Net Loss is estimated to increase to about (1.6 B).

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 UGI Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast UGI's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in UGI's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for UGI stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current UGI's open interest, investors have to compare it to UGI's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of UGI is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in UGI. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in UGI cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the UGI's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets UGI's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through UGI price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

UGI Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of UGI Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 24.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64, mean absolute percentage error of 0.64, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.70.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict UGI Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that UGI's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

UGI Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest UGIUGI Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

UGI Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting UGI's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. UGI's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.00 and 26.80, respectively. We have considered UGI's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
24.16
24.40
Expected Value
26.80
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of UGI stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent UGI stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.5046
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6403
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0273
SAESum of the absolute errors39.6956
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as UGI Corporation historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for UGI

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UGI Corporation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of UGI's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
21.7524.1526.55
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
21.7427.6130.01
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
23.6023.9524.31
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
32.0835.2539.13
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as UGI. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against UGI's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, UGI's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in UGI Corporation.

Other Forecasting Options for UGI

For every potential investor in UGI, whether a beginner or expert, UGI's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. UGI Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in UGI. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying UGI's price trends.

UGI Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with UGI stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of UGI could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing UGI by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

UGI Corporation Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of UGI's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of UGI's current price.

UGI Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how UGI stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading UGI shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying UGI stock market strength indicators, traders can identify UGI Corporation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

UGI Risk Indicators

The analysis of UGI's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in UGI's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ugi stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

UGI Investors Sentiment

The influence of UGI's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in UGI. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to UGI's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in UGI. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding UGI can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around UGI Corporation. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
UGI's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for UGI's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average UGI's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on UGI.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards UGI in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, UGI's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from UGI options trading.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When determining whether UGI Corporation offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of UGI's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Ugi Corporation Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Ugi Corporation Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of UGI to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the UGI Corporation information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other UGI's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the AI Portfolio Architect module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.

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When running UGI's price analysis, check to measure UGI's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy UGI is operating at the current time. Most of UGI's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of UGI's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move UGI's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of UGI to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is UGI's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of UGI. If investors know UGI will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about UGI listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.47)
Dividend Share
1.485
Earnings Share
(2.18)
Revenue Per Share
39.52
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.23)
The market value of UGI Corporation is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of UGI that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of UGI's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is UGI's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because UGI's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect UGI's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between UGI's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if UGI is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, UGI's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.