UnitedHealth Group Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

UNH Stock  USD 493.10  0.79  0.16%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 482.66 with a mean absolute deviation of  9.91  and the sum of the absolute errors of 614.25. UnitedHealth Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast UnitedHealth Group stock prices and determine the direction of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of UnitedHealth Group's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although UnitedHealth Group's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of UnitedHealth Group's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of UnitedHealth Group fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of UnitedHealth Group to cross-verify your projections.
  
The UnitedHealth Group's current Asset Turnover is estimated to increase to 1.71, while Inventory Turnover is forecasted to increase to (4.47). . The UnitedHealth Group's current Common Stock Shares Outstanding is estimated to increase to about 1.2 B. The UnitedHealth Group's current Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is estimated to increase to about 24.3 B.

Open Interest Against 2024-03-28 UnitedHealth Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast UnitedHealth Group's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in UnitedHealth Group's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for UnitedHealth Group stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current UnitedHealth Group's open interest, investors have to compare it to UnitedHealth Group's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of UnitedHealth Group is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in UnitedHealth. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in UnitedHealth Group cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the UnitedHealth Group's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets UnitedHealth Group's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through UnitedHealth Group price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

UnitedHealth Group Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 482.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.91, mean absolute percentage error of 139.59, and the sum of the absolute errors of 614.25.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict UnitedHealth Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that UnitedHealth Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

UnitedHealth Group Stock Forecast Pattern

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UnitedHealth Group Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting UnitedHealth Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. UnitedHealth Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 481.36 and 483.96, respectively. We have considered UnitedHealth Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
493.10
481.36
Downside
482.66
Expected Value
483.96
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of UnitedHealth Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent UnitedHealth Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria124.8871
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation9.9073
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0196
SAESum of the absolute errors614.2496
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as UnitedHealth Group Incorporated historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for UnitedHealth Group

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UnitedHealth Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of UnitedHealth Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
491.81493.10494.39
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
433.76435.05542.41
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
483.96490.43496.90
Details
27 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
507.95558.19619.59
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as UnitedHealth Group. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against UnitedHealth Group's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, UnitedHealth Group's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in UnitedHealth Group.

Other Forecasting Options for UnitedHealth Group

For every potential investor in UnitedHealth, whether a beginner or expert, UnitedHealth Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. UnitedHealth Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in UnitedHealth. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying UnitedHealth Group's price trends.

UnitedHealth Group Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with UnitedHealth Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of UnitedHealth Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing UnitedHealth Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

UnitedHealth Group Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of UnitedHealth Group's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of UnitedHealth Group's current price.

UnitedHealth Group Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how UnitedHealth Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading UnitedHealth Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying UnitedHealth Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify UnitedHealth Group Incorporated entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

UnitedHealth Group Risk Indicators

The analysis of UnitedHealth Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in UnitedHealth Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting unitedhealth stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

UnitedHealth Group Investors Sentiment

The influence of UnitedHealth Group's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in UnitedHealth. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to UnitedHealth Group's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in UnitedHealth. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding UnitedHealth can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around UnitedHealth Group Incorporated. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
UnitedHealth Group's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for UnitedHealth Group's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average UnitedHealth Group's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on UnitedHealth Group.

UnitedHealth Group Implied Volatility

    
  24.63  
UnitedHealth Group's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if UnitedHealth Group's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that UnitedHealth Group stock will not fluctuate a lot when UnitedHealth Group's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards UnitedHealth Group in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, UnitedHealth Group's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from UnitedHealth Group options trading.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When determining whether UnitedHealth Group offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of UnitedHealth Group's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Unitedhealth Group Incorporated Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Unitedhealth Group Incorporated Stock:

Complementary Tools for UnitedHealth Stock analysis

When running UnitedHealth Group's price analysis, check to measure UnitedHealth Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy UnitedHealth Group is operating at the current time. Most of UnitedHealth Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of UnitedHealth Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move UnitedHealth Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of UnitedHealth Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is UnitedHealth Group's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of UnitedHealth Group. If investors know UnitedHealth will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about UnitedHealth Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.16
Dividend Share
7.29
Earnings Share
23.88
Revenue Per Share
400.455
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.141
The market value of UnitedHealth Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of UnitedHealth that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of UnitedHealth Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is UnitedHealth Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because UnitedHealth Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect UnitedHealth Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between UnitedHealth Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if UnitedHealth Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, UnitedHealth Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.