Union Pacific Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

UNP Stock  USD 245.93  1.30  0.53%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Union Pacific on the next trading day is expected to be 243.53 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.73  and the sum of the absolute errors of 105.56. Union Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Union Pacific stock prices and determine the direction of Union Pacific's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Union Pacific's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Union Pacific's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Union Pacific's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Union Pacific fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Union Pacific to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Union Stock, please use our How to Invest in Union Pacific guide.
  
At this time, Union Pacific's Payables Turnover is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 03/28/2024, Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 0.56, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 10.29. . As of 03/28/2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 721.3 M. Also, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to grow to about 8.5 B.

Open Interest Against 2024-03-28 Union Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Union Pacific's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Union Pacific's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Union Pacific stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Union Pacific's open interest, investors have to compare it to Union Pacific's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Union Pacific is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Union. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Union Pacific cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Union Pacific's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Union Pacific's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Union Pacific is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Union Pacific value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Union Pacific Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Union Pacific on the next trading day is expected to be 243.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.73, mean absolute percentage error of 4.72, and the sum of the absolute errors of 105.56.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Union Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Union Pacific's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Union Pacific Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Union PacificUnion Pacific Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Union Pacific Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Union Pacific's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Union Pacific's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 242.59 and 244.47, respectively. We have considered Union Pacific's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
245.93
242.59
Downside
243.53
Expected Value
244.47
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Union Pacific stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Union Pacific stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.6631
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.7305
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0071
SAESum of the absolute errors105.5621
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Union Pacific. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Union Pacific. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Union Pacific

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Union Pacific. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Union Pacific's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
245.08246.02246.96
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
242.38243.32270.66
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
239.26243.79248.32
Details
29 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
219.38241.08267.60
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Union Pacific. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Union Pacific's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Union Pacific's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Union Pacific.

Other Forecasting Options for Union Pacific

For every potential investor in Union, whether a beginner or expert, Union Pacific's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Union Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Union. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Union Pacific's price trends.

Union Pacific Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Union Pacific stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Union Pacific could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Union Pacific by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Union Pacific Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Union Pacific's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Union Pacific's current price.

Union Pacific Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Union Pacific stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Union Pacific shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Union Pacific stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Union Pacific entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Union Pacific Risk Indicators

The analysis of Union Pacific's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Union Pacific's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting union stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Union Pacific Investors Sentiment

The influence of Union Pacific's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Union. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Union Pacific's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Union. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Union can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Union Pacific. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Union Pacific's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Union Pacific's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Union Pacific's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Union Pacific.

Union Pacific Implied Volatility

    
  33.33  
Union Pacific's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Union Pacific stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Union Pacific's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Union Pacific stock will not fluctuate a lot when Union Pacific's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Union Pacific in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Union Pacific's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Union Pacific options trading.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When determining whether Union Pacific is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Union Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Union Pacific Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Union Pacific Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Union Pacific to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Union Stock, please use our How to Invest in Union Pacific guide.
You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

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Is Union Pacific's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Union Pacific. If investors know Union will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Union Pacific listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.012
Dividend Share
5.2
Earnings Share
10.45
Revenue Per Share
39.591
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0)
The market value of Union Pacific is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Union that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Union Pacific's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Union Pacific's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Union Pacific's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Union Pacific's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Union Pacific's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Union Pacific is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Union Pacific's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.