ARCELORMITTAL Forecast - Simple Regression

 03938LAS3 102.93  0.80  0.78%
ARCELORMITTAL Bond Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast ARCELORMITTAL stock prices and determine the direction of ARCELORMITTAL LUXEMBOURG 675's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of ARCELORMITTAL historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ARCELORMITTAL to cross-verify your projections.
 ARCELORMITTAL
Most investors in ARCELORMITTAL cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the ARCELORMITTAL's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets ARCELORMITTAL's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through ARCELORMITTAL price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

ARCELORMITTAL Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 5th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of ARCELORMITTAL LUXEMBOURG 675 on the next trading day is expected to be 103.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.24, mean absolute percentage error of 2.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 75.52.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ARCELORMITTAL Bond prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ARCELORMITTAL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ARCELORMITTAL Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting ARCELORMITTAL's Bond value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ARCELORMITTAL's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 102.15 and 105.32, respectively. We have considered ARCELORMITTAL's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
 102.15Downside 103.73Expected ValueTarget Odds 105.32Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ARCELORMITTAL bond data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ARCELORMITTAL bond, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
 AIC Akaike Information Criteria 119.0228 Bias Arithmetic mean of the errors None MAD Mean absolute deviation 1.238 MAPE Mean absolute percentage error 0.0119 SAE Sum of the absolute errors 75.5158
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as ARCELORMITTAL LUXEMBOURG 675 historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for ARCELORMITTAL

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ARCELORMITTAL LUXEMB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of ARCELORMITTAL's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of ARCELORMITTAL in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
 Low Estimated High 101.35 102.93 104.51
Intrinsic
Valuation
 Low Real High 85.22 86.80 113.22
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
 Low Middle High 101.49 102.78 104.72
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ARCELORMITTAL. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ARCELORMITTAL's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ARCELORMITTAL's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in ARCELORMITTAL LUXEMB.

Other Forecasting Options for ARCELORMITTAL

For every potential investor in ARCELORMITTAL, whether a beginner or expert, ARCELORMITTAL's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ARCELORMITTAL Bond price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ARCELORMITTAL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ARCELORMITTAL's price trends.

ARCELORMITTAL Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ARCELORMITTAL bond to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ARCELORMITTAL could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ARCELORMITTAL by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return Correlation

ARCELORMITTAL LUXEMB Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ARCELORMITTAL's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ARCELORMITTAL's current price.
 Cycle Indicators Math Operators Math Transform Momentum Indicators Overlap Studies Pattern Recognition Price Transform Statistic Functions Volatility Indicators Volume Indicators

ARCELORMITTAL Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ARCELORMITTAL bond reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ARCELORMITTAL shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ARCELORMITTAL bond market strength indicators, traders can identify ARCELORMITTAL LUXEMBOURG 675 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

ARCELORMITTAL Risk Indicators

The analysis of ARCELORMITTAL's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ARCELORMITTAL's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting ARCELORMITTAL stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios. One of the essential factors to consider when estimating the risk of default for a bond instrument is its duration, which is the bond's price sensitivity to changes in interest rates. The duration of ARCELORMITTAL LUXEMBOURG 675 bond is primarily affected by its yield, coupon rate, and time to maturity. The duration of a bond will be higher the lower its coupon, lower its yield, and longer the time left to maturity.
 Mean Deviation 1.09 Semi Deviation 1.3 Standard Deviation 1.58 Variance 2.51 Downside Variance 1.84 Semi Variance 1.68 Expected Short fall (1.29)
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ARCELORMITTAL to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the ARCELORMITTAL LUXEMB information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other ARCELORMITTAL's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

Complementary Tools for ARCELORMITTAL Bond analysis

When running ARCELORMITTAL's price analysis, check to measure ARCELORMITTAL's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ARCELORMITTAL is operating at the current time. Most of ARCELORMITTAL's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ARCELORMITTAL's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ARCELORMITTAL's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ARCELORMITTAL to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between ARCELORMITTAL's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ARCELORMITTAL is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ARCELORMITTAL's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.