30034TAA1 Forecast - Polynomial Regression

30034TAA1   86.26  12.87  12.98%   
30034TAA1 Bond Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast 30034TAA1 stock prices and determine the direction of US30034TAA16's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of 30034TAA1 historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of 30034TAA1 to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in 30034TAA1 cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the 30034TAA1's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets 30034TAA1's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
30034TAA1 polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for US30034TAA16 as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

30034TAA1 Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 19th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of US30034TAA16 on the next trading day is expected to be 89.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.36, mean absolute percentage error of 8.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 146.27.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict 30034TAA1 Bond prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that 30034TAA1's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

30034TAA1 Bond Forecast Pattern

Backtest 30034TAA130034TAA1 Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

30034TAA1 Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting 30034TAA1's Bond value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. 30034TAA1's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 87.14 and 91.32, respectively. We have considered 30034TAA1's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
86.26
89.23
Expected Value
91.32
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of 30034TAA1 bond data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent 30034TAA1 bond, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.0612
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.3592
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0252
SAESum of the absolute errors146.2723
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the 30034TAA1 historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for 30034TAA1

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as US30034TAA16. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of 30034TAA1's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of 30034TAA1 in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
84.1786.2688.35
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
73.1775.2694.89
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
85.5793.40101.23
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as 30034TAA1. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against 30034TAA1's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, 30034TAA1's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in US30034TAA16.

Other Forecasting Options for 30034TAA1

For every potential investor in 30034TAA1, whether a beginner or expert, 30034TAA1's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. 30034TAA1 Bond price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in 30034TAA1. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying 30034TAA1's price trends.

30034TAA1 Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with 30034TAA1 bond to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of 30034TAA1 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing 30034TAA1 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
AEP TEX INCUS BANK NATIONALFactSet Research SystemsAmerican ExpressBooz Allen HamiltonSterling ConstructionSchneider ElectricUniversal TechnicalPACCAR IncCostco Wholesale CorpAmerican AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroup
 Risk & Return  Correlation

US30034TAA16 Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of 30034TAA1's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of 30034TAA1's current price.

30034TAA1 Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how 30034TAA1 bond reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading 30034TAA1 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying 30034TAA1 bond market strength indicators, traders can identify US30034TAA16 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

30034TAA1 Risk Indicators

The analysis of 30034TAA1's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in 30034TAA1's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting 30034TAA1 stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios. One of the essential factors to consider when estimating the risk of default for a bond instrument is its duration, which is the bond's price sensitivity to changes in interest rates. The duration of US30034TAA16 bond is primarily affected by its yield, coupon rate, and time to maturity. The duration of a bond will be higher the lower its coupon, lower its yield, and longer the time left to maturity.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of 30034TAA1 to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..

Complementary Tools for 30034TAA1 Bond analysis

When running 30034TAA1's price analysis, check to measure 30034TAA1's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy 30034TAA1 is operating at the current time. Most of 30034TAA1's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of 30034TAA1's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move 30034TAA1's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of 30034TAA1 to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Theme Ratings
Determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Instant Ratings
Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Cryptocurrency Center
Build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency
Alpha Finder
Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk
Economic Indicators
Top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing
Please note, there is a significant difference between 30034TAA1's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if 30034TAA1 is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, 30034TAA1's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.