69354NAD8 Forecast - Polynomial Regression

69354NAD8   80.36  4.47  5.27%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of US69354NAD84 on the next trading day is expected to be 84.01 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.53  and the sum of the absolute errors of 94.84. 69354NAD8 Bond Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast 69354NAD8 stock prices and determine the direction of US69354NAD84's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of 69354NAD8's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of 69354NAD8 to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in 69354NAD8 cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, bond markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the 69354NAD8's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets 69354NAD8's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
69354NAD8 polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for US69354NAD84 as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

69354NAD8 Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of US69354NAD84 on the next trading day is expected to be 84.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.53, mean absolute percentage error of 10.61, and the sum of the absolute errors of 94.84.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict 69354NAD8 Bond prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that 69354NAD8's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

69354NAD8 Bond Forecast Pattern

Backtest 69354NAD869354NAD8 Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

69354NAD8 Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting 69354NAD8's Bond value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. 69354NAD8's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 82.92 and 85.10, respectively. We have considered 69354NAD8's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
80.36
84.01
Expected Value
85.10
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of 69354NAD8 bond data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent 69354NAD8 bond, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.3103
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.5297
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0178
SAESum of the absolute errors94.8434
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the 69354NAD8 historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for 69354NAD8

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as US69354NAD84. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of 69354NAD8's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
79.2780.3681.45
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
61.5962.6888.40
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as 69354NAD8. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against 69354NAD8's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, 69354NAD8's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in US69354NAD84.

Other Forecasting Options for 69354NAD8

For every potential investor in 69354NAD8, whether a beginner or expert, 69354NAD8's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. 69354NAD8 Bond price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in 69354NAD8. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying 69354NAD8's price trends.

69354NAD8 Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with 69354NAD8 bond to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of 69354NAD8 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing 69354NAD8 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

US69354NAD84 Technical and Predictive Analytics

The bond market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of 69354NAD8's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of 69354NAD8's current price.

69354NAD8 Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how 69354NAD8 bond reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading 69354NAD8 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying 69354NAD8 bond market strength indicators, traders can identify US69354NAD84 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

69354NAD8 Risk Indicators

The analysis of 69354NAD8's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in 69354NAD8's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting 69354nad8 bond prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios. One of the essential factors to consider when estimating the risk of default for a bond instrument is its duration, which is the bond's price sensitivity to changes in interest rates. The duration of US69354NAD84 bond is primarily affected by its yield, coupon rate, and time to maturity. The duration of a bond will be higher the lower its coupon, lower its yield, and longer the time left to maturity.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards 69354NAD8 in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, 69354NAD8's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from 69354NAD8 options trading.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of 69354NAD8 to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the US69354NAD84 information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other 69354NAD8's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.

Complementary Tools for 69354NAD8 Bond analysis

When running 69354NAD8's price analysis, check to measure 69354NAD8's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy 69354NAD8 is operating at the current time. Most of 69354NAD8's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of 69354NAD8's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move 69354NAD8's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of 69354NAD8 to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between 69354NAD8's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if 69354NAD8 is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, 69354NAD8's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.