Liberty All Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction
| USA Fund | USD 6.72 0.02 0.30% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Liberty All Star on the next trading day is expected to be 6.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.82. Liberty Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Liberty All stock prices and determine the direction of Liberty All Star's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Liberty All's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Liberty All to cross-verify your projections. Liberty |
Most investors in Liberty All cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Liberty All's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Liberty All's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Liberty All is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Liberty All Star value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Liberty All Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Liberty All Star on the next trading day is expected to be 6.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.82.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Liberty Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Liberty All's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Liberty All Fund Forecast Pattern
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Liberty All Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Liberty All's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Liberty All's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.92 and 7.46, respectively. We have considered Liberty All's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Liberty All fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Liberty All fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.3278 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0463 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.007 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.8249 |
Predictive Modules for Liberty All
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Liberty All Star. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Liberty All's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Liberty All
For every potential investor in Liberty, whether a beginner or expert, Liberty All's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Liberty Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Liberty. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Liberty All's price trends.View Liberty All Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Liberty All Star Technical and Predictive Analytics
The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Liberty All's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Liberty All's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Liberty All Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Liberty All fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Liberty All shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Liberty All fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Liberty All Star entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Liberty All Risk Indicators
The analysis of Liberty All's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Liberty All's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting liberty fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6087 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6718 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7702 | |||
| Variance | 0.5933 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.7391 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4514 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.67) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Liberty All to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.