Valneva SE Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| VALN Stock | USD 7.92 0.34 4.49% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Valneva SE ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 7.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.16. Valneva Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Valneva SE stock prices and determine the direction of Valneva SE ADR's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Valneva SE's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Valneva SE's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Valneva SE's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Valneva SE fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Valneva SE to cross-verify your projections. Valneva |
Most investors in Valneva SE cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Valneva SE's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Valneva SE's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Valneva SE is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Valneva SE ADR value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Valneva SE Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Valneva SE ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 7.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.16.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Valneva Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Valneva SE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Valneva SE Stock Forecast Pattern
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Valneva SE Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Valneva SE's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Valneva SE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.70 and 11.40, respectively. We have considered Valneva SE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Valneva SE stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Valneva SE stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.4601 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2157 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0279 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.1563 |
Predictive Modules for Valneva SE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Valneva SE ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Valneva SE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Valneva SE
For every potential investor in Valneva, whether a beginner or expert, Valneva SE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Valneva Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Valneva. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Valneva SE's price trends.View Valneva SE Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Valneva SE ADR Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Valneva SE's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Valneva SE's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Valneva SE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Valneva SE stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Valneva SE shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Valneva SE stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Valneva SE ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Valneva SE Risk Indicators
The analysis of Valneva SE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Valneva SE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting valneva stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.87 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.78 | |||
| Variance | 14.28 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Valneva SE ADR offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Valneva SE's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Valneva Se Adr Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Valneva Se Adr Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Valneva SE to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Complementary Tools for Valneva Stock analysis
When running Valneva SE's price analysis, check to measure Valneva SE's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Valneva SE is operating at the current time. Most of Valneva SE's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Valneva SE's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Valneva SE's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Valneva SE to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Valneva SE's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Valneva SE. If investors know Valneva will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Valneva SE listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.56) | Revenue Per Share 2.218 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.79) | Return On Assets (0.10) | Return On Equity (0.58) |
The market value of Valneva SE ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Valneva that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Valneva SE's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Valneva SE's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Valneva SE's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Valneva SE's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Valneva SE's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Valneva SE is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Valneva SE's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.