Vivani Medical Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

VANI Stock  USD 2.02  0.05  2.42%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Vivani Medical on the next trading day is expected to be 2.47 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.27  and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.44. Vivani Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Vivani Medical stock prices and determine the direction of Vivani Medical's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Vivani Medical's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Vivani Medical's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Vivani Medical's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Vivani Medical fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vivani Medical to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Vivani Stock please use our How to Invest in Vivani Medical guide.
  
The Vivani Medical's current Asset Turnover is estimated to increase to 0.23, while Inventory Turnover is projected to decrease to 2.00. . The Vivani Medical's current Common Stock Shares Outstanding is estimated to increase to about 53.4 M, while Net Loss is projected to decrease to (10.8 M).
Most investors in Vivani Medical cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Vivani Medical's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Vivani Medical's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Vivani Medical is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Vivani Medical value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Vivani Medical Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 17th of April 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Vivani Medical on the next trading day is expected to be 2.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.44.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vivani Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vivani Medical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Vivani Medical Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Vivani MedicalVivani Medical Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Vivani Medical Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Vivani Medical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vivani Medical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 37.10, respectively. We have considered Vivani Medical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2.02
2.47
Expected Value
37.10
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vivani Medical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vivani Medical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.6146
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2695
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1618
SAESum of the absolute errors16.4369
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Vivani Medical. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Vivani Medical. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Vivani Medical

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vivani Medical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vivani Medical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.081.6736.58
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.122.4837.39
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
3.644.004.44
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.12-0.12-0.12
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Vivani Medical. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Vivani Medical's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Vivani Medical's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Vivani Medical.

Other Forecasting Options for Vivani Medical

For every potential investor in Vivani, whether a beginner or expert, Vivani Medical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vivani Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vivani. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vivani Medical's price trends.

Vivani Medical Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vivani Medical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vivani Medical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vivani Medical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Vivani Medical Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Vivani Medical's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Vivani Medical's current price.

Vivani Medical Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vivani Medical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vivani Medical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vivani Medical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vivani Medical entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Vivani Medical Risk Indicators

The analysis of Vivani Medical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vivani Medical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vivani stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Vivani Medical in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Vivani Medical's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Vivani Medical options trading.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When determining whether Vivani Medical offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Vivani Medical's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Vivani Medical Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Vivani Medical Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vivani Medical to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Vivani Stock please use our How to Invest in Vivani Medical guide.
You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.

Complementary Tools for Vivani Stock analysis

When running Vivani Medical's price analysis, check to measure Vivani Medical's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vivani Medical is operating at the current time. Most of Vivani Medical's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vivani Medical's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vivani Medical's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vivani Medical to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Vivani Medical's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vivani Medical. If investors know Vivani will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Vivani Medical listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(0.50)
Return On Assets
(0.35)
Return On Equity
(0.79)
The market value of Vivani Medical is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vivani that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vivani Medical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vivani Medical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vivani Medical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vivani Medical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vivani Medical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vivani Medical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vivani Medical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.