Vaxxinity Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

VAXX Stock  USD 0.45  0.04  8.16%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Vaxxinity on the next trading day is expected to be 0.41 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.03  and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.79. Vaxxinity Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Vaxxinity stock prices and determine the direction of Vaxxinity's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Vaxxinity's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Vaxxinity's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Vaxxinity's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Vaxxinity fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vaxxinity to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Vaxxinity Stock please use our How to Invest in Vaxxinity guide.
  
Payables Turnover is likely to rise to 1.32 in 2024, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 0.14 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to rise to about 138.3 M in 2024, whereas Net Loss is likely to drop (71.1 M) in 2024.
Most investors in Vaxxinity cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Vaxxinity's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Vaxxinity's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Vaxxinity is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Vaxxinity value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Vaxxinity Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 17th of April 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Vaxxinity on the next trading day is expected to be 0.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.79.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vaxxinity Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vaxxinity's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Vaxxinity Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest VaxxinityVaxxinity Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Vaxxinity Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Vaxxinity's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vaxxinity's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 5.60, respectively. We have considered Vaxxinity's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.45
0.41
Expected Value
5.60
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vaxxinity stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vaxxinity stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.6234
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0293
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0425
SAESum of the absolute errors1.7899
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Vaxxinity. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Vaxxinity. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Vaxxinity

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vaxxinity. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vaxxinity's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.020.415.48
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.153.088.15
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
10.0111.0012.21
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Vaxxinity. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Vaxxinity's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Vaxxinity's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Vaxxinity.

Other Forecasting Options for Vaxxinity

For every potential investor in Vaxxinity, whether a beginner or expert, Vaxxinity's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vaxxinity Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vaxxinity. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vaxxinity's price trends.

View Vaxxinity Related Equities

 Risk & Return  Correlation

Vaxxinity Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Vaxxinity's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Vaxxinity's current price.

Vaxxinity Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vaxxinity stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vaxxinity shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vaxxinity stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vaxxinity entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Vaxxinity Risk Indicators

The analysis of Vaxxinity's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vaxxinity's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vaxxinity stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When determining whether Vaxxinity offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Vaxxinity's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Vaxxinity Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Vaxxinity Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vaxxinity to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Vaxxinity Stock please use our How to Invest in Vaxxinity guide.
You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.

Complementary Tools for Vaxxinity Stock analysis

When running Vaxxinity's price analysis, check to measure Vaxxinity's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vaxxinity is operating at the current time. Most of Vaxxinity's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vaxxinity's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vaxxinity's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vaxxinity to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Vaxxinity's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vaxxinity. If investors know Vaxxinity will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Vaxxinity listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(0.45)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.57)
Return On Assets
(0.48)
Return On Equity
(1.51)
The market value of Vaxxinity is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vaxxinity that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vaxxinity's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vaxxinity's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vaxxinity's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vaxxinity's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vaxxinity's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vaxxinity is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vaxxinity's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.