Village Bank Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| VBFC Stock | USD 41.59 0.66 1.61% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Village Bank and on the next trading day is expected to be 41.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.23. Village Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Village Bank stock prices and determine the direction of Village Bank and's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Village Bank's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Village Bank's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Village Bank's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Village Bank fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Village Bank to cross-verify your projections. Village |
Most investors in Village Bank cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Village Bank's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Village Bank's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Village Bank simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Village Bank and are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Village Bank prices get older. Village Bank Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Village Bank and on the next trading day is expected to be 41.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30, mean absolute percentage error of 0.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.23.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Village Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Village Bank's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Village Bank Stock Forecast Pattern
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Village Bank Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Village Bank's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Village Bank's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 40.16 and 43.02, respectively. We have considered Village Bank's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Village Bank stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Village Bank stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.8947 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0284 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2989 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0072 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 18.23 |
Predictive Modules for Village Bank
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Village Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Village Bank's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Village Bank
For every potential investor in Village, whether a beginner or expert, Village Bank's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Village Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Village. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Village Bank's price trends.Village Bank Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Village Bank stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Village Bank could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Village Bank by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Village Bank Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Village Bank's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Village Bank's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Village Bank Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Village Bank stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Village Bank shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Village Bank stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Village Bank and entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Village Bank Risk Indicators
The analysis of Village Bank's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Village Bank's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting village stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7045 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Variance | 1.6 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.62 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.33 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.92) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Village Bank offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Village Bank's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Village Bank And Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Village Bank And Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Village Bank to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Village Bank information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Village Bank's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Complementary Tools for Village Stock analysis
When running Village Bank's price analysis, check to measure Village Bank's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Village Bank is operating at the current time. Most of Village Bank's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Village Bank's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Village Bank's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Village Bank to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Village Bank's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Village Bank. If investors know Village will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Village Bank listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.22) | Earnings Share 1.29 | Revenue Per Share 16.96 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) | Return On Assets 0.0026 |
The market value of Village Bank is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Village that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Village Bank's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Village Bank's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Village Bank's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Village Bank's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Village Bank's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Village Bank is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Village Bank's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.