Victory Capital Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| VCTR Stock | USD 50.02 0.62 1.22% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Victory Capital Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 49.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.81 and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.26. Victory Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Victory Capital stock prices and determine the direction of Victory Capital Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Victory Capital's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Victory Capital's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Victory Capital's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Victory Capital fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Victory Capital to cross-verify your projections. Victory |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Victory Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Victory Capital's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Victory Capital's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Victory Capital stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Victory Capital's open interest, investors have to compare it to Victory Capital's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Victory Capital is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Victory. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Victory Capital cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Victory Capital's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Victory Capital's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Victory Capital Holdings is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility. Victory Capital 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 26th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Victory Capital Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 49.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.81, mean absolute percentage error of 1.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Victory Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Victory Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Victory Capital Stock Forecast Pattern
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Victory Capital Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Victory Capital's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Victory Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 48.23 and 51.58, respectively. We have considered Victory Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Victory Capital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Victory Capital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.8208 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.6932 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8149 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0193 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 47.265 |
Predictive Modules for Victory Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Victory Capital Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Victory Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Victory Capital
For every potential investor in Victory, whether a beginner or expert, Victory Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Victory Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Victory. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Victory Capital's price trends.View Victory Capital Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Victory Capital Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Victory Capital's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Victory Capital's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Victory Capital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Victory Capital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Victory Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Victory Capital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Victory Capital Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Victory Capital Risk Indicators
The analysis of Victory Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Victory Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting victory stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.12 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.66 | |||
| Variance | 2.75 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.62 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.15 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.33) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Victory Capital Holdings is a strong investment it is important to analyze Victory Capital's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Victory Capital's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Victory Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Victory Capital to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Complementary Tools for Victory Stock analysis
When running Victory Capital's price analysis, check to measure Victory Capital's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Victory Capital is operating at the current time. Most of Victory Capital's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Victory Capital's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Victory Capital's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Victory Capital to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Victory Capital's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Victory Capital. If investors know Victory will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Victory Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.12 | Dividend Share 1.28 | Earnings Share 3.12 | Revenue Per Share 12.402 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.021 |
The market value of Victory Capital Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Victory that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Victory Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Victory Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Victory Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Victory Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Victory Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Victory Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Victory Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.