Vanguard 500 Mutual Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| VFINX Fund | USD 458.68 4.03 0.87% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Vanguard 500 Index on the next trading day is expected to be 462.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 195.86. Vanguard Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Vanguard 500 stock prices and determine the direction of Vanguard 500 Index's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Vanguard 500's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vanguard 500 to cross-verify your projections. Vanguard |
Most investors in Vanguard 500 cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Vanguard 500's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Vanguard 500's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Vanguard 500 Index is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility. Vanguard 500 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Vanguard 500 Index on the next trading day is expected to be 462.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.44, mean absolute percentage error of 18.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 195.86.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vanguard Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vanguard 500's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Vanguard 500 Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Vanguard 500 | Vanguard 500 Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Vanguard 500 Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Vanguard 500's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vanguard 500's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 462.13 and 463.62, respectively. We have considered Vanguard 500's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vanguard 500 mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vanguard 500 mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.6628 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.4494 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.4361 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0073 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 195.8575 |
Predictive Modules for Vanguard 500
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vanguard 500 Index. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard 500's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Vanguard 500
For every potential investor in Vanguard, whether a beginner or expert, Vanguard 500's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vanguard Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vanguard. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vanguard 500's price trends.Vanguard 500 Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vanguard 500 mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vanguard 500 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vanguard 500 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Vanguard 500 Index Technical and Predictive Analytics
The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Vanguard 500's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Vanguard 500's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Vanguard 500 Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vanguard 500 mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vanguard 500 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vanguard 500 mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Vanguard 500 Index entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 458.68 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 458.68 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (4.03) |
Vanguard 500 Risk Indicators
The analysis of Vanguard 500's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vanguard 500's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vanguard mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5781 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.581 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7413 | |||
| Variance | 0.5495 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.5109 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.3375 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.64) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vanguard 500 to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.