Virco Manufacturing Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| VIRC Stock | USD 10.29 0.03 0.29% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Virco Manufacturing on the next trading day is expected to be 9.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.70. Virco Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Virco Manufacturing stock prices and determine the direction of Virco Manufacturing's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Virco Manufacturing's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Virco Manufacturing's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Virco Manufacturing's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Virco Manufacturing fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Virco Manufacturing to cross-verify your projections. Virco |
Most investors in Virco Manufacturing cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Virco Manufacturing's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Virco Manufacturing's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Virco Manufacturing is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Virco Manufacturing value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Virco Manufacturing Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Virco Manufacturing on the next trading day is expected to be 9.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.70.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Virco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Virco Manufacturing's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Virco Manufacturing Stock Forecast Pattern
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Virco Manufacturing Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Virco Manufacturing's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Virco Manufacturing's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.51 and 13.80, respectively. We have considered Virco Manufacturing's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Virco Manufacturing stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Virco Manufacturing stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.6473 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3722 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0356 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.7037 |
Predictive Modules for Virco Manufacturing
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Virco Manufacturing. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Virco Manufacturing's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Virco Manufacturing
For every potential investor in Virco, whether a beginner or expert, Virco Manufacturing's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Virco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Virco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Virco Manufacturing's price trends.Virco Manufacturing Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Virco Manufacturing stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Virco Manufacturing could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Virco Manufacturing by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Virco Manufacturing Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Virco Manufacturing's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Virco Manufacturing's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Virco Manufacturing Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Virco Manufacturing stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Virco Manufacturing shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Virco Manufacturing stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Virco Manufacturing entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Virco Manufacturing Risk Indicators
The analysis of Virco Manufacturing's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Virco Manufacturing's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting virco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.8 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.19 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.3 | |||
| Variance | 18.46 | |||
| Downside Variance | 28.97 | |||
| Semi Variance | 26.97 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.57) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Virco Manufacturing offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Virco Manufacturing's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Virco Manufacturing Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Virco Manufacturing Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Virco Manufacturing to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Virco Stock refer to our How to Trade Virco Stock guide.You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.
Complementary Tools for Virco Stock analysis
When running Virco Manufacturing's price analysis, check to measure Virco Manufacturing's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Virco Manufacturing is operating at the current time. Most of Virco Manufacturing's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Virco Manufacturing's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Virco Manufacturing's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Virco Manufacturing to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Virco Manufacturing's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Virco Manufacturing. If investors know Virco will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Virco Manufacturing listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.292 | Dividend Share 0.02 | Earnings Share 1.34 | Revenue Per Share 16.515 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.098 |
The market value of Virco Manufacturing is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Virco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Virco Manufacturing's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Virco Manufacturing's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Virco Manufacturing's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Virco Manufacturing's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Virco Manufacturing's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Virco Manufacturing is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Virco Manufacturing's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.