Viking Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| VKTX Stock | USD 66.95 1.67 2.43% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Viking Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 59.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 469.63. Viking Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Viking Therapeutics stock prices and determine the direction of Viking Therapeutics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Viking Therapeutics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Viking Therapeutics' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Viking Therapeutics' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Viking Therapeutics fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Viking Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. Viking |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Viking Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Viking Therapeutics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Viking Therapeutics' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Viking Therapeutics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Viking Therapeutics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Viking Therapeutics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Viking Therapeutics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Viking. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Viking Therapeutics cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Viking Therapeutics' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Viking Therapeutics' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Viking Therapeutics polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Viking Therapeutics as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Viking Therapeutics Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 16th of April 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Viking Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 59.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.70, mean absolute percentage error of 124.53, and the sum of the absolute errors of 469.63.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Viking Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Viking Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Viking Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
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Viking Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Viking Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Viking Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 42.78 and 75.85, respectively. We have considered Viking Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Viking Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Viking Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.935 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 7.6988 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1453 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 469.6271 |
Predictive Modules for Viking Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Viking Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Viking Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Viking Therapeutics
For every potential investor in Viking, whether a beginner or expert, Viking Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Viking Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Viking. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Viking Therapeutics' price trends.View Viking Therapeutics Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Viking Therapeutics Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Viking Therapeutics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Viking Therapeutics' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Viking Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Viking Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Viking Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Viking Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Viking Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 114109.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.45) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 68.13 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 67.73 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.67) |
Viking Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Viking Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Viking Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting viking stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 6.75 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.01 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 16.16 | |||
| Variance | 261.21 | |||
| Downside Variance | 35.94 | |||
| Semi Variance | 25.09 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (9.17) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Viking Therapeutics Investors Sentiment
The influence of Viking Therapeutics' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Viking. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Viking Therapeutics' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Viking. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Viking can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Viking Therapeutics. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Viking Therapeutics' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Viking Therapeutics' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Viking Therapeutics' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Viking Therapeutics.
Viking Therapeutics Implied Volatility | 97.25 |
Viking Therapeutics' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Viking Therapeutics stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Viking Therapeutics' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Viking Therapeutics stock will not fluctuate a lot when Viking Therapeutics' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Viking Therapeutics in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Viking Therapeutics' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Viking Therapeutics options trading.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Viking Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Viking Stock please use our How to Invest in Viking Therapeutics guide.You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.
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When running Viking Therapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Viking Therapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Viking Therapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Viking Therapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Viking Therapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Viking Therapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Viking Therapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Viking Therapeutics' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Viking Therapeutics. If investors know Viking will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Viking Therapeutics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.91) | Return On Assets (0.23) | Return On Equity (0.35) |
The market value of Viking Therapeutics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Viking that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Viking Therapeutics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Viking Therapeutics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Viking Therapeutics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Viking Therapeutics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Viking Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Viking Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Viking Therapeutics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.