Valero Energy Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| VLO Stock | USD 165.90 2.01 1.23% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Valero Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 157.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 137.20. Valero Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Valero Energy stock prices and determine the direction of Valero Energy's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Valero Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Valero Energy's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Valero Energy's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Valero Energy fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Valero Energy to cross-verify your projections. Valero |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-26 Valero Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Valero Energy's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Valero Energy's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Valero Energy stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Valero Energy's open interest, investors have to compare it to Valero Energy's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Valero Energy is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Valero. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Valero Energy cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Valero Energy's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Valero Energy's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Valero Energy is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Valero Energy value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Valero Energy Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Valero Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 157.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.25, mean absolute percentage error of 7.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 137.20.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Valero Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Valero Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Valero Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
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Valero Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Valero Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Valero Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 156.34 and 159.65, respectively. We have considered Valero Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Valero Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Valero Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.0949 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.2493 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0144 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 137.2045 |
Predictive Modules for Valero Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Valero Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Valero Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Valero Energy
For every potential investor in Valero, whether a beginner or expert, Valero Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Valero Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Valero. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Valero Energy's price trends.Valero Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Valero Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Valero Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Valero Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Valero Energy Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Valero Energy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Valero Energy's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Valero Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Valero Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Valero Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Valero Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Valero Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 62894.08 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.4069 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 164.83 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 165.19 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 2.08 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 2.01 |
Valero Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Valero Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Valero Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting valero stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Variance | 2.64 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.33 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.38 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.44) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Valero Energy Investors Sentiment
The influence of Valero Energy's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Valero. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Valero Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Valero. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Valero can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Valero Energy. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Valero Energy's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Valero Energy's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Valero Energy's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Valero Energy.
Valero Energy Implied Volatility | 43.15 |
Valero Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Valero Energy stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Valero Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Valero Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Valero Energy's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Valero Energy in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Valero Energy's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Valero Energy options trading.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Valero Energy offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Valero Energy's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Valero Energy Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Valero Energy Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Valero Energy to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Valero Stock, please use our How to Invest in Valero Energy guide.You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Complementary Tools for Valero Stock analysis
When running Valero Energy's price analysis, check to measure Valero Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Valero Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Valero Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Valero Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Valero Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Valero Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Valero Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Valero Energy. If investors know Valero will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Valero Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.57) | Dividend Share 4.08 | Earnings Share 24.93 | Revenue Per Share 393.771 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.16) |
The market value of Valero Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Valero that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Valero Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Valero Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Valero Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Valero Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Valero Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Valero Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Valero Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.