VMG Consumer Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| VMGADelisted Stock | USD 10.41 0.00 0.00% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of VMG Consumer Acquisition on the next trading day is expected to be 10.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.52. VMG Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast VMG Consumer stock prices and determine the direction of VMG Consumer Acquisition's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of VMG Consumer's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in price. VMG |
Most investors in VMG Consumer cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the VMG Consumer's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets VMG Consumer's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
VMG Consumer simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for VMG Consumer Acquisition are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as VMG Consumer Acquisition prices get older. VMG Consumer Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of VMG Consumer Acquisition on the next trading day is expected to be 10.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0002, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.52.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VMG Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VMG Consumer's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
VMG Consumer Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest VMG Consumer | VMG Consumer Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VMG Consumer stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VMG Consumer stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 107.5438 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0036 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0087 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 8.0E-4 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.5198 |
Predictive Modules for VMG Consumer
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VMG Consumer Acquisition. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of VMG Consumer's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
VMG Consumer Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with VMG Consumer stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of VMG Consumer could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing VMG Consumer by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VMG Consumer Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how VMG Consumer stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading VMG Consumer shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying VMG Consumer stock market strength indicators, traders can identify VMG Consumer Acquisition entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
VMG Consumer Risk Indicators
The analysis of VMG Consumer's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in VMG Consumer's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vmg stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0825 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1284 | |||
| Variance | 0.0165 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.051 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0.01) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.17) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in price. Note that the VMG Consumer Acquisition information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other VMG Consumer's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..
Other Consideration for investing in VMG Stock
If you are still planning to invest in VMG Consumer Acquisition check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the VMG Consumer's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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