Vasta Platform Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

VSTA -  USA Stock  

USD 4.25  0.05  1.16%

Vasta Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Vasta Platform historical stock prices and determine the direction of Vasta Platform's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Vasta Platform historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Also, please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vasta Platform to cross-verify your projections.

Vasta Stock Forecast 

 
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Most investors in Vasta Platform cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Vasta Platform's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Vasta Platform's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Vasta Platform is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Vasta Platform value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Vasta Platform Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 18th of October 2021

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Vasta Platform on the next trading day is expected to be 4.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.009704, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.63. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vasta Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vasta Platform's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Vasta Platform Stock Forecast Pattern

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Vasta Platform Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Vasta Platform's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vasta Platform's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.85 and 5.99, respectively. We have considered Vasta Platform's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
4.25
17th of October 2021
4.42
Expected Value
5.99
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vasta Platform stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vasta Platform stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.4753
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0759
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0138
SAESum of the absolute errors4.6312
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Vasta Platform. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Vasta Platform. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Vasta Platform

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vasta Platform. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vasta Platform's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Vasta Platform in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
2.644.215.78
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
3.435.006.57
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Vasta Platform. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Vasta Platform's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Vasta Platform's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Vasta Platform.

Other Forecasting Options for Vasta Platform

For every potential investor in Vasta, whether a beginner or expert, Vasta Platform's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vasta Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vasta. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vasta Platform's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vasta Platform stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vasta Platform could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vasta Platform by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Vasta Platform Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Vasta Platform's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Vasta Platform's current price.

Vasta Platform Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vasta Platform stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vasta Platform shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vasta Platform stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vasta Platform entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Vasta Platform Risk Indicators

The analysis of Vasta Platform's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vasta Platform's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Vasta Platform stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Vasta Platform Investors Sentiment

The influence of Vasta Platform's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Vasta. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - VSTA

Vasta Platform Investor Sentiment

Macroaxis portfolio users are unemotional in their outlook on investing in Vasta Platform. What is your outlook on investing in Vasta Platform? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
50% Bullish
50% Bearish
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Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity..
Also, please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vasta Platform to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Vasta Platform information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Vasta Platform's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.

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When running Vasta Platform price analysis, check to measure Vasta Platform's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vasta Platform is operating at the current time. Most of Vasta Platform's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vasta Platform's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vasta Platform's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vasta Platform to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Vasta Platform is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vasta that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vasta Platform's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vasta Platform's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vasta Platform's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vasta Platform underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vasta Platform's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Vasta Platform value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vasta Platform's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.