VitruLtd Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| VTRU Stock | USD 12.85 0.71 5.24% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of VitruLtd on the next trading day is expected to be 12.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.90. VitruLtd Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast VitruLtd stock prices and determine the direction of VitruLtd's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of VitruLtd's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although VitruLtd's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of VitruLtd's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of VitruLtd fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VitruLtd to cross-verify your projections. VitruLtd |
Most investors in VitruLtd cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the VitruLtd's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets VitruLtd's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for VitruLtd is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of VitruLtd value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. VitruLtd Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 18th of April 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of VitruLtd on the next trading day is expected to be 12.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.90.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VitruLtd Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VitruLtd's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
VitruLtd Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest VitruLtd | VitruLtd Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
VitruLtd Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting VitruLtd's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. VitruLtd's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.58 and 16.04, respectively. We have considered VitruLtd's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VitruLtd stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VitruLtd stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.4486 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3263 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.023 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.9038 |
Predictive Modules for VitruLtd
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VitruLtd. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of VitruLtd's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for VitruLtd
For every potential investor in VitruLtd, whether a beginner or expert, VitruLtd's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. VitruLtd Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in VitruLtd. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying VitruLtd's price trends.VitruLtd Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with VitruLtd stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of VitruLtd could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing VitruLtd by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VitruLtd Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of VitruLtd's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of VitruLtd's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
VitruLtd Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how VitruLtd stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading VitruLtd shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying VitruLtd stock market strength indicators, traders can identify VitruLtd entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
VitruLtd Risk Indicators
The analysis of VitruLtd's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in VitruLtd's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vitrultd stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.66 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.67 | |||
| Variance | 13.47 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards VitruLtd in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, VitruLtd's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from VitruLtd options trading.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.| CRM | Salesforce | |
| TXT | Textron | |
| VECO | Veeco Instruments |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VitruLtd to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy VitruLtd Stock please use our How to Invest in VitruLtd guide.You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Complementary Tools for VitruLtd Stock analysis
When running VitruLtd's price analysis, check to measure VitruLtd's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy VitruLtd is operating at the current time. Most of VitruLtd's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of VitruLtd's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move VitruLtd's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of VitruLtd to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Volatility Analysis Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data | |
| Balance Of Power Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios | |
| Price Ceiling Movement Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments | |
| Portfolio Diagnostics Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings | |
| Pattern Recognition Use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges | |
| Premium Stories Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope | |
| Earnings Calls Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges | |
| Money Managers Screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world | |
| Transaction History View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance | |
| FinTech Suite Use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities | |
| Risk-Return Analysis View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume | |
| Analyst Advice Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories | |
| Global Markets Map Get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes |
Is VitruLtd's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of VitruLtd. If investors know VitruLtd will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about VitruLtd listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.211 | Earnings Share 0.85 | Revenue Per Share 58.176 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.181 | Return On Assets 0.0446 |
The market value of VitruLtd is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of VitruLtd that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of VitruLtd's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is VitruLtd's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because VitruLtd's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect VitruLtd's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between VitruLtd's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if VitruLtd is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, VitruLtd's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.