Vivint Smart Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

VVNT
 Stock
  

USD 6.40  0.43  7.20%   

Vivint Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Vivint Smart historical stock prices and determine the direction of Vivint Smart Home's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Vivint Smart historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Also, please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vivint Smart to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-08-19 Vivint Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Vivint Smart's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Vivint Smart's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Vivint Smart stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Vivint Smart's open interest, investors have to compare it to Vivint Smart's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Vivint Smart is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Vivint. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Vivint Smart cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Vivint Smart's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Vivint Smart's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Vivint Smart is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Vivint Smart Home value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Vivint Smart Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 16th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Vivint Smart Home on the next trading day is expected to be 6.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.48.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vivint Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vivint Smart's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Vivint Smart Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Vivint SmartVivint Smart Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Vivint Smart Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Vivint Smart's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vivint Smart's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.81 and 12.16, respectively. We have considered Vivint Smart's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 6.40
6.98
Expected Value
12.16
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vivint Smart stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vivint Smart stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.7082
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2335
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.047
SAESum of the absolute errors14.48
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Vivint Smart Home. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Vivint Smart. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Vivint Smart

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vivint Smart Home. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vivint Smart's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Vivint Smart in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
1.176.3511.53
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.244.769.94
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
2.824.466.10
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Vivint Smart. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Vivint Smart's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Vivint Smart's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Vivint Smart Home.

Other Forecasting Options for Vivint Smart

For every potential investor in Vivint, whether a beginner or expert, Vivint Smart's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vivint Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vivint. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vivint Smart's price trends.

Vivint Smart Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vivint Smart stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vivint Smart could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vivint Smart by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
American AirlinesAlcoa CorpApple IncBest BuyCitigroupSentinelone IncCVS CorpChevron CorpHome DepotInternational BusinessIntel CorpMetlifeATT IncTarget CorpUnited Parcel Service
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Vivint Smart Home Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Vivint Smart's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Vivint Smart's current price.

Vivint Smart Risk Indicators

The analysis of Vivint Smart's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vivint Smart's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Vivint Smart stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Vivint Smart Investors Sentiment

The influence of Vivint Smart's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Vivint. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Vivint Smart's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Vivint. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Vivint can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Vivint Smart Home. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Vivint Smart's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Vivint Smart's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Vivint Smart's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Vivint Smart.

Vivint Smart Implied Volatility

    
  179.7  
Vivint Smart's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Vivint Smart Home stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Vivint Smart's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Vivint Smart stock will not fluctuate a lot when Vivint Smart's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Vivint Smart in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Vivint Smart's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Vivint Smart options trading.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Also, please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vivint Smart to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Vivint Smart Home information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Vivint Smart's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..

Complementary Tools for Vivint Stock analysis

When running Vivint Smart Home price analysis, check to measure Vivint Smart's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vivint Smart is operating at the current time. Most of Vivint Smart's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vivint Smart's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vivint Smart's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vivint Smart to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Companies Directory
Evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals
Go
Portfolio Optimization
Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk
Go
Pair Correlation
Compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments
Go
Portfolio Backtesting
Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios
Go
Performance Analysis
Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation
Go
Crypto Correlations
Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins
Go
Insider Screener
Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance
Go
Equity Valuation
Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data
Go
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
Go
Stock Tickers
Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites
Go
Cryptocurrency Center
Build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency
Go
Money Flow Index
Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators
Go
Volatility Analysis
Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data
Go
Is Vivint Smart's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vivint Smart. If investors know Vivint will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Vivint Smart listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
1.4 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.15
Return On Assets
-0.0053
The market value of Vivint Smart Home is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vivint that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vivint Smart's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vivint Smart's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vivint Smart's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vivint Smart's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vivint Smart's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Vivint Smart value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vivint Smart's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.