Encore Wire Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

WIRE Stock  USD 283.09  1.31  0.46%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Encore Wire on the next trading day is expected to be 283.09 with a mean absolute deviation of  4.65  and the sum of the absolute errors of 278.84. Encore Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Encore Wire stock prices and determine the direction of Encore Wire's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Encore Wire's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Encore Wire's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Encore Wire's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Encore Wire fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Encore Wire to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Encore Stock refer to our How to Trade Encore Stock guide.
  
At present, Encore Wire's Receivables Turnover is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Fixed Asset Turnover is expected to grow to 5.97, whereas Inventory Turnover is forecasted to decline to 8.19. . The current year's Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to grow to about 19.3 M. The current year's Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to grow to about 866.8 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Encore Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Encore Wire's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Encore Wire's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Encore Wire stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Encore Wire's open interest, investors have to compare it to Encore Wire's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Encore Wire is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Encore. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Encore Wire cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Encore Wire's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Encore Wire's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Encore Wire simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Encore Wire are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Encore Wire prices get older.

Encore Wire Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of April

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Encore Wire on the next trading day is expected to be 283.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.65, mean absolute percentage error of 42.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 278.84.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Encore Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Encore Wire's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Encore Wire Stock Forecast Pattern

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Encore Wire Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Encore Wire's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Encore Wire's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 280.50 and 285.68, respectively. We have considered Encore Wire's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
283.09
280.50
Downside
283.09
Expected Value
285.68
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Encore Wire stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Encore Wire stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.0109
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -1.038
MADMean absolute deviation4.6473
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0191
SAESum of the absolute errors278.84
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Encore Wire forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Encore Wire observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Encore Wire

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Encore Wire. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Encore Wire's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
280.38282.95285.52
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
275.16277.73311.40
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
217.19238.67264.92
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
3.513.713.91
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Encore Wire. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Encore Wire's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Encore Wire's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Encore Wire.

Other Forecasting Options for Encore Wire

For every potential investor in Encore, whether a beginner or expert, Encore Wire's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Encore Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Encore. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Encore Wire's price trends.

Encore Wire Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Encore Wire stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Encore Wire could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Encore Wire by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Encore Wire Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Encore Wire's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Encore Wire's current price.

Encore Wire Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Encore Wire stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Encore Wire shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Encore Wire stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Encore Wire entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Encore Wire Risk Indicators

The analysis of Encore Wire's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Encore Wire's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting encore stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When determining whether Encore Wire is a strong investment it is important to analyze Encore Wire's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Encore Wire's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Encore Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Encore Wire to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Encore Stock refer to our How to Trade Encore Stock guide.
You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

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When running Encore Wire's price analysis, check to measure Encore Wire's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Encore Wire is operating at the current time. Most of Encore Wire's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Encore Wire's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Encore Wire's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Encore Wire to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Encore Wire's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Encore Wire. If investors know Encore will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Encore Wire listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.50)
Dividend Share
0.08
Earnings Share
21.61
Revenue Per Share
152.179
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.09)
The market value of Encore Wire is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Encore that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Encore Wire's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Encore Wire's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Encore Wire's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Encore Wire's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Encore Wire's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Encore Wire is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Encore Wire's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.