Williams Sonoma Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| WSM Stock | USD 279.53 2.64 0.94% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Williams Sonoma on the next trading day is expected to be 281.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.62 and the sum of the absolute errors of 272.29. Williams Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Williams Sonoma stock prices and determine the direction of Williams Sonoma's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Williams Sonoma's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Williams Sonoma's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Williams Sonoma's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Williams Sonoma fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Williams Sonoma to cross-verify your projections. Williams |
Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Williams Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Williams Sonoma's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Williams Sonoma's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Williams Sonoma stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Williams Sonoma's open interest, investors have to compare it to Williams Sonoma's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Williams Sonoma is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Williams. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Williams Sonoma cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Williams Sonoma's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Williams Sonoma's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Williams Sonoma works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. Williams Sonoma Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Williams Sonoma on the next trading day is expected to be 281.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.62, mean absolute percentage error of 57.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 272.29.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Williams Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Williams Sonoma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Williams Sonoma Stock Forecast Pattern
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Williams Sonoma Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Williams Sonoma's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Williams Sonoma's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 279.00 and 284.90, respectively. We have considered Williams Sonoma's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Williams Sonoma stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Williams Sonoma stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 1.2439 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.6151 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0179 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 272.29 |
Predictive Modules for Williams Sonoma
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Williams Sonoma. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Williams Sonoma's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Williams Sonoma
For every potential investor in Williams, whether a beginner or expert, Williams Sonoma's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Williams Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Williams. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Williams Sonoma's price trends.Williams Sonoma Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Williams Sonoma stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Williams Sonoma could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Williams Sonoma by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Williams Sonoma Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Williams Sonoma's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Williams Sonoma's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Williams Sonoma Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Williams Sonoma stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Williams Sonoma shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Williams Sonoma stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Williams Sonoma entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Williams Sonoma Risk Indicators
The analysis of Williams Sonoma's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Williams Sonoma's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting williams stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.89 | |||
| Variance | 8.33 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.76 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.11 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.95) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Williams Sonoma is a strong investment it is important to analyze Williams Sonoma's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Williams Sonoma's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Williams Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Williams Sonoma to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Williams Stock, please use our How to Invest in Williams Sonoma guide.You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Complementary Tools for Williams Stock analysis
When running Williams Sonoma's price analysis, check to measure Williams Sonoma's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Williams Sonoma is operating at the current time. Most of Williams Sonoma's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Williams Sonoma's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Williams Sonoma's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Williams Sonoma to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Williams Sonoma's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Williams Sonoma. If investors know Williams will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Williams Sonoma listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.031 | Dividend Share 3.6 | Earnings Share 14.55 | Revenue Per Share 120.027 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) |
The market value of Williams Sonoma is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Williams that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Williams Sonoma's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Williams Sonoma's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Williams Sonoma's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Williams Sonoma's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Williams Sonoma's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Williams Sonoma is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Williams Sonoma's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.